The five-day Week 1 slate of college football is behind us. We’ve now gotten a glimpse of each team at least once, to at least begin to learn what these programs are. But Week 2 of college football will continue to feed us more information. What did we see in Week 1 that was for real? What did we see in Week 1 that was a mirage? Let’s try to find out.
I’m starting off by posting three plays late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning, and will be adding my plays throughout the week and updating the article.
Oklahoma at Michigan (Saturday – 12pm ET)
Here’s something we saw in Week 1 that I’m saying is for real — Michigan’s offense is in big trouble.
The Wolverines are the finish everyone is talking about from Week 1. The game was lost as a four-touchdown favorite at home to Western Michigan. Controversially, a second was put back on the clock, and the rest is history.
We had a GOTY line on this Week 2 matchup on the board all summer at DraftKings. It was priced Michigan -2.5. After the Wolverines’ performance in their opener, they are now a 5.5-point home underdog. The spread touched as high as Michigan +6 before there was buy back.
So is this a Week 1 overreaction? I don’t think it was. Sure, Michigan probably overlooked Western Michigan in the game. But with the Wolverines leading 7-6 at halftime, you’d think they would’ve woken up. Outside of the Hail Mary that won the game, Michigan didn’t score in the second half.
Enter an Oklahoma defense that was among the nation’s elite last season, and projects as even more dangerous in 2026. The Sooners hosted the Wolverines in Norman in Week 2 last season, and things did not go well for Bryce Underwood. It was his first start in a major college atmosphere, and Michigan was shutout in the first half. Oklahoma went on to win the game 24-13.
The leap heading into his second season as the starting QB for Michigan was not there last Saturday night. Underwood led the Wolverines down the field for a 75-yard touchdown drive on the first possession of the game. It was a scripted drive that resulted in a fourth down rushing touchdown for by the QB.
Underwood was 5-for-5 passing on Michigan’s opening drive for 61 yards. His last pass of the night was the 47-yard Hail Mary that won the game. In the nearly 55 minutes of game clock between those two events, Underwood was 6-for-16 passing for 62 yards and an interception that was nearly returned for a touchdown … against Western Michigan.
Good luck cleaning that up against Brent Venables and the Sooners.
Now Michigan should be the real deal on the defensive side of the ball. It really gave up just six points to WMU on two field goals that the defense was responsible for, with Underwood’s turnovers generating the rest of the points on a short field. I’m not calling for John Mateer and OU to come into the Big House and light up the scoreboard. But it’s a very capable offense with a dual threat QB and solid weapons. We saw an extreme version of that in the Sooners’ 51-0 win over UTEP.
Oklahoma has an extra day to prepare for this one, having played its Week 1 game on Friday night. Even if we call the defenses even in this game, the Sooners have a massive QB advantage that overtakes the value of home field here.
After debating different ways to bet this one with the big adjustment to the spread, I settled on Oklahoma Halftime/Fulltime. Essentially the double result market to lead at halftime and win the game. Give me the Sooners wire-to-wire in this one to takedown Michigan for the second straight season.
CFB Pick: Oklahoma Halftime/Fulltime (-110)
Wake Forest at Purdue (Saturday – 12pm ET)
I spend a lot of time over the summer flipping through all the college football preview publications. Many of them projected Purdue as the worst team of the Power Conferences. However, the perception could create some value for us on Saturday afternoon in West Lafayette.
Wake Forest surprised last season and was able to grind to nine wins. Purdue won it’s first two games against lower level competition in 2025, but then lost to Notre Dame and all nine games in the Big Ten to finish 2-10. On the surface, these programs are headed in different directions.
Phil Steele is slightly more bullish on the Boilermakers than most this season. The Power Poll in his magazine has Purdue sitting at 65th in the country. The Demon Deacons aren’t much further ahead at 58th. Pick Six Previews points out how much Wake lost from last season’s roster without doing much to replace it. Only six starters return, while nine All-ACC performers are gone. The program did not add any four star level talent that transferred in.
Those losses showed when the Demon Deacons opened their season at home in a Thursday night game in Week 1. While the box score looks better than the final result actual was, Wake struggled at times with Akron. I’m not convinced this new roster is ready for a road trip against a Big Ten squad, even if it is Purdue.
Barry Odom knows what he’s doing as an experienced head coach. While the roster has plenty of turnover, Purdue returns its starting QB — Ryan Browne started all 12 games last season and looked good in the opener.
This might be a gross one, but the market agrees with the Boilermakers as home underdogs. While the number has come down about a point, I’ll grab the field goal with Purdue at home.
CFB Pick: Purdue +3 (-110)
Iowa State at Iowa (Saturday – 7:30pm ET)
Iowa has lost consecutive games in this rivalry, but I expect a completely different scene on Saturday night.
With the departure of Matt Campbell to Penn State, Iowa State doesn’t return a single starter from the 2025 team. The Cyclones are built primarily off transfer talent from non-Power schools, and even the FCS level. I have Iowa State ranked as one of the worst five teams in the Power 4, and I expect a long night against this Iowa defense.
While Northern Illinois is one of the worst FBS teams in the country, Iowa still completely embarrassed it in Week 1. UNI was unable to gain any yards on the ground and got shutout in a 40-0 loss. UNI didn’t gain a first down until late in the game. Meanwhile, Iowa posted over 500 yards of offense, and got a typical special teams touchdown.
Off consecutive losses in the rivalry, I expect the Hawkeyes to be out for blood on Saturday night at home. Virtually none of these players for Iowa State have been a part of this rivalry. They are about to learn what its all about. Iowa’s going to look to squeeze the life out of the Cyclones, and should be able to do so successfully.
We’re dealing with a big spread here, but this has blowout potential written all over it. The Hawkeyes have the best WR room they’ve had in years, and will be able to move the ball through the air. Combine that with a lethal running game, and Iowa will find its points in this game. Given the recent history of this matchup, Kirk Ferentz has all the motivation he needs to make this a lopsided score.
Pick Six Previews made the number on this game Iowa -21, showing plenty of value on the Hawkeyes. I’m calling for a one sided game that’s dominated by the Hawkeyes on Saturday night in primetime at Kinnick Stadium.
CFB Pick: Iowa -13.5 (-120) – 2-units
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