The US Open is on to the quarterfinals. In the match of the tournament so far, the World No. 3 Carlos Alcaraz takes on the top-ranked American, Ben Shelton, at 8:10 p.m. ET at Arthur Ashe Stadium.
Here is my pick and prediction for the epic quarterfinal match between Carlos Alcaraz and Ben Shelton.
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Ben Shelton Prediction, Preview
Carlos Alcaraz Preview
Many people were uncertain about how well Carlos Alcaraz would perform at this US Open. He is the defending champion and one of the two best players in the world. However, Alcaraz had not played tennis for four months prior to his opening-round match in New York. Alcaraz was hoping to get some tune-up tournaments in before the US Open, but setbacks in his recovery did not allow for that. Alcaraz won the first major of this year in Australia, but he has not participated in the past two. All of that being said, Alcaraz’s play has not seemed particularly rusty. He has won 12 out of 13 sets so far, but this match against Ben Shelton will be his toughest to date.
Ben Shelton Preview
This has been a great tournament for Ben Shelton so far. For a while, he was the plucky young American at the US Open. His run to the 2023 semifinals announced him as the next big thing in American tennis. However, as Shelton was becoming a top-10 player in the world, his US Open performances were going in the wrong direction. He was bounced in the third round in New York each of the past two years. Shelton entered the 2026 edition of the US Open as the top-ranked American and has lived up to that billing so far. He has yet to require a fifth set and just played his best match of the tournament so far in the Round of 16 against Stefanos Tsitsipas.
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Ben Shelton Pick, Best Bet
My best bet is for this match to go over 39.5 total games. Shelton and Alcaraz have faced off three times in the past, with Alcaraz winning all three meetings. Ben Shelton has become a very consistent player, but like most of his generation, has struggled against Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic. It’s hard to trust Shelton to win, but he should put up a good fight in front of the American crowd.
The last time these two faced off was at Roland-Garros in 2025. Alcaraz won that match in four sets, with one of his winning sets going to a tiebreak. They played 42 games in that match, and it’s safe to say the gap between Alcaraz and Shelton is wider on clay than it is on hardcourt. Add in the fact that Alcaraz’s health and fitness might not be at 100%, and there is no reason to think Alcaraz would win by a wider margin in this match than he did in 2025.
Ben Shelton should be able to win a set and push Alcaraz hard from start to finish. It will be in the key points and key games that Alcaraz pulls out the top-shelf stuff to ensure he wins the match. However, that competitiveness from Shelton should see this match go over the listed total.
