Lambeau Field hosts one of college football’s marquee Week 1 matchups. #4 Notre Dame enters 2026 with massive expectations, itching for a return to the postseason. The hype is a bit tame in comparison for Wisconsin, a program looking to reassert itself as one of the Big Ten’s best. Which of these Midwest powers will emerge victorious on Sunday night in Green Bay?
The Fighting Irish are listed as 20.5-point favorites over the Badgers, with the total set at O/U 46.5 points. Below is my full preview, prediction and best bet for Sunday’s Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin Week 1 matchup.
Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin prediction, preview
The Irish are poised for a monster season, due in large part to the man under center. CJ Carr is a legitimate Hesiman contender, coming into his sophomore year with all the tools to bring home hardware. As a freshman, the signal caller threw for 2,741 yards and 24 touchdowns on a ten-win Notre Dame squad. The running back tandem of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price are gone, which stings a bit. Still, third-stringer Aneyas Williams is more than capable of handling extra touches out of the backfield. We’ve seen Notre Dame reload time and time again at halfback; this season shouldn’t be any different.
Running back aside, the rest of this offense is nothing short of frightening. Wide receivers Jordan Faison and Jaden Greathouse are back, while Ohio State transfers Quincy Porter and Mylan Graham add more depth at the position. The offensive line is, as always, dominant. Will Black is the headliner at left tackle, while Anthonie Knapp could blossom into an NFL-caliber guard. Projected starter Cooper Flanagan is a terrific blocker and solid safety blanket at tight end. Carr will have no shortage of weapons at his disposal.
With all that being said, the strength for Marcus Freeman’s crew might be defense. What separates the Irish from most other teams is experience; more than half of Notre Dame’s projected starters are returning to campus. Leonard Moore might be the best defensive player in the country, a shutdown cornerback that opposing passers don’t even consider throwing against. Tough as nails linebackers, led by senior Drayk Bowen, prioritize stopping the run. As a unit, ND ranked 16th in yards allowed (312.3) and seventh in yards per rush attempt (3.0).
Safe to say it’s going to be an uphill climb for the Badgers. This group went 4-8 in 2025, making 2026 a crucial season for head coach Luke Fickell. It’s not as if things are hopeless in Madison; wins over Washington and Illinois last season should give fans some optimism. Much of the team’s issues come down to abysmal quarterback play. No, that is not an exaggeration; Wisconsin’s 6.0 yards per pass attempt ranked 122nd out of 136 FBS schools. Among Power 4 programs, only Minnesota, Virginia Tech and Syracuse were worse.
Fortunately for Wisconsin, transfer Colton Joseph could turn things around. The former Old Dominion passer is a true dual-threat, throwing for 2,624 yards and rushing for 1,007 more last season. He managed to score 34 touchdowns, 13 of which came on the ground. With that being said, the jump from FCS to FBS competition can be drastic. That’s especially true against a formidable Irish team that dominates against the run. A bevy of new wide receivers should give this offense more ways to gain yardage. Out of the backfield, transfer running back Abu Sama performed well at Iowa State (732 Yds, 5 TD). Still, it’s difficult to generate much excitement for an offense that just averaged less than 13 points per game.
If the Badgers are going to hang around in the Big Ten, it’ll be because of the other side of the ball. This might be college football’s most underrated defense, ranking 23rd in opponent yards per game (323.6) and 16th in yards per rush (3.4) in 2025. That they did this despite having little to no rest is nothing short of a miracle. Even more impressive, the secondary only managed to snag five interceptions. Positive regression when it comes to turnovers should be the expectation.
Best Bet: Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin under 24.5 1st Half (-130)
For all their collective talent, it wasn’t uncommon for the Irish to start off sluggish on offense. Taking the field for the first time all season, Carr and company may need a few drives to get into full gear. To boot, Wisconsin’s defense has stifled some of the Big Ten’s best quarterbacks. It’s no stretch to think a physical Badgers defensive line can flummox this Notre Dame rushing attack as well.
On the other side of the ball, I’m not willing to back Wisconsin just yet. Joseph will improve this unit, but he’s untested against Power 4 squads. Keep in mind, Notre Dame’s defense has enjoyed ample success against scrambling QBs at Army and Navy. A low scoring, old-school first half feels like the best available bet this evening at Lambeau Field.
