Central Michigan opens their 2026 campaign tonight at New Mexico as a a 10.5-point underdog. The total is only 46.5, so each point of that spread is crucially valuable. New Mexico’s current quarterback identity crisis (more on that below) and the thought of laying double digits has me looking to take the experienced visitor. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the New Mexico Lobos and the Central Michigan Chippewas.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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New Mexico vs. Central Michigan prediction, preview
The home-squad Lobos went 9-4 and shared the Mountain West title during Jason Eck’s first season in 2025. QB Jack Layne slung 2,486 passing yards before an elbow injury wrecked his season. He’s since aggravated the same ailment, and he now needs another operation. Layne will miss the entire season. New Mexico hadn’t named a starting quarterback entering game week.
Oregon transfer Luke Moga, sophomore Toa Fa’avae and veteran James Laubstein all offer different skills, and will be in rotation tonight. Not a single one, however, owns Jack Layne’s command of this offense. Hell be sorely missed. New Mexico will lean on its backfield and defense while the QB competition continues in real time before our eyes. I expect them to win at home, but I don’t like betting on experiments.
Central Michigan feels pretty absolute and unexperimental, such as they are. They return 10 offensive starters from Matt Drinkall’s 7-6 coaching debut last season. The Chippewas use a run-heavy option system and they rotate quarterbacks Angel Flores and Jadyn Glasser. That kineticism gets to be especially valuable on the road because the reads, exchanges, and blocking rules are already established in the scheme no matter where the Chippewas play. Their defense is fairly inexperienced, however, so they’re going to try to sustain drives.
Central Michigan vs. New Mexico pick, best bet
New Mexico’s greatest strength will look to utterly thwart that gameplan. The Lobos allowed a Mountain West-best 112.8 rushing yards per game, led by linebacker and coach’s son Jaxton Eck. Central Michigan may struggle to score. In the same light, however, every opponent scored 20 points or fewer in the Chippewas’ seven wins. They also forced 21 turnovers. They’re not going to just get rolled over by New Mexico’s not-yet-fully-formed offense.
Albuquerque’s altitude and New Mexico’s stout defense make an outright upset difficult for me to envision. I still refuse to price the Lobos’ unresolved quarterback room like the unit that produced nine wins with Layne. I think the Chippewas can keep this within one score.
Best bet: Central Michigan +10.5 (-112)
Projected score: New Mexico 23, Central Michigan 17
Best Bet: Central Michigan +10.5 (-110) at New Mexico
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