So far, so good for Brighton and Leeds United in their Premier League campaigns. Both teams have picked up a win in their first two contests, as these mid-table sides hope to make some noise this year. It’s going to be a good measuring-stick contest between these two clubs.
Brighton are -110 moneyline favorites for this one on DraftKings Sportsbook, with a draw available at +270. Leeds United’s moneyline is set at +295.
Brighton vs. Leeds United Prediction, Pick
Brighton’s scoring start to the season has been sublime. They dismantled Aston Villa in their opening match, scoring four first-half goals and never looking back. And though they came up short, a rocking 4-3 loss to Chelsea is nothing to be ashamed of. Seven goals through two matches has to feel good for a team that has weathered a lot of inconsistency at the top of the formation.
The challenge is to manage things after the big sales in their defensive group. Carlos Baleba and Jan Paul van Hecke both held huge roles on the back line, and they’re going to be pressed to put things together in defense. Veteran Lewis Dunk will play a big role as a mentor and tone setter on the back line. It’s a lot on the shoulders of 19-year-old Luka Vuskovic, a big arrival from Hamburger SV, to be the second man in the center of the line. There’s plenty of pressure on goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen as well, though that’s nothing new for a keeper.
Leeds have a decidedly different brand of football. After spending a record fee on goalkeeper James Trafford, Leeds are reasserting their defense-first mentality. The back line is flexible and solid, placing top five in clearances, interceptions, and expected goals allowed. They’re comfortable playing deep, breaking on the counter when available, and killing you with set-piece brilliance. Anton Stach remains one of the best midfielders in the Prem and a top free-kick threat.
It’s always interesting to look at matches that clash in style. Just look at the gap in total goals for and against: Brighton’s two matches have produced 11 total goals, while Leeds’ matches have produced only three. It’s hard to sort out which club will set the tone, and which will be able to play outside their comfort zone.
One interesting stat is Brighton’s possession. They’ve held the ball for a league-leading 73.6% of the time, and they’re doing a whole lot with it; in addition to leading the league in goals scored, they are tied for the most big chances missed. Neither Chelsea nor Aston Villa has been able to keep a lid on Brighton, and I’m not confident Leeds can do so. Conversely, Brighton’s defense has shown some gaps on the counter. To me, all of this adds up to an over, regardless of the result.
