In 2024/25, Napoli made a shocking late comeback in Serie A, pipping Inter Milan to the Scudetto by a single point, but the Nerazzurri got redemption the following season, winning the Italian top flight by nine points ahead of the Partenopei. Of all of the top five leagues in Europe, Serie A may well be the most wide-open, and Napoli-Inter has emerged as arguably its best rivalry.
The teams will face off for the first time this season at 12 p.m. ET (6 p.m. local) on Saturday in Milan. It would be foolish to call a match on September 5 a critical fixture in the title fight, but it could turn out to be decisive in the end.
The Nerazzurri are -160 favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook to take all three points, and the Partenopei are +425. There are +265 odds that the teams will draw.
Below, I’ll break down this potential early title-decider and provide my favorite bet.
Inter Milan vs. Napoli Best Bet:
- Inter Milan or Tie and U2.5 (-125): So far this season, Napoli’s attack hasn’t quite clicked, and while that’s largely the function of luck, it might have a difficult time against an Inter defense that has been firing on all cylinders. I’ll stop short of guaranteeing the Nerazzurri a clean sheet, since I think they need an upgrade between the sticks over Josep Martínez, but a 1-0 or 1-1 result wouldn’t surprise me.
Inter Milan vs. Napoli prediction, pick
Inter Milan clearly wants to defend its title. The Nerazzurri have looked extremely strong in the first two matches of the season, throttling newly-promoted Monza 4-1 in their opener and picking up a 1-0 result over Cagliari. They’ve clearly established themselves as the primary powerhouse in Italy after finishing last season on a 10-game unbeaten run. Napoli, on the other hand, has not had so friendly a schedule, as after a 2-0 win over Genoa, the Partenopei had to host a fellow Champions League side in Como, which managed a 2-1 victory. The schedule will get more challenging in a hurry for both teams this week, as each will face a giant in its Champions League opener (Inter will play Real Madrid at the Bernabeu, and Napoli will host Arsenal).
The Nerazzurri almost lost their captain in the offseason, as Barcelona was reportedly interested in poaching Lautaro Martínez, but the Argentinian star, who scored 17 goals in Serie A in 2025/26, decided to stay. In fact, no player who scored more than three Serie A goals in 2025/26 departed, and former Liverpool man Curtis Jones could provide some attacking juice. Given that Inter Milan scored 24 more goals than any other team in Italy last season, it should come as no surprise that the Nerazzurri rank second in expected goals and third in shots on target so far while completing passes at the second-highest rate. Furthermore, Inter allowed the fourth-fewest goals in Serie A last season from the second-fewest shots on target, and although right-back Denzel Dumfries left to join Los Blancos and goalkeeper Yann Sommer went to Belgium, the Nerazzurri brought in some strong players, including Djed Spence and John Stones from the Premier League. They’ve been sharp so far, allowing the fourth-fewest expected goals through the first two matches and conceding the fewest shots on target while recording the second-most recoveries and winning both ground and aerial duels at among the highest rates. Inter has also committed just 10 fouls, six fewer than any other team, and although Josep Martínez is a relatively untested goalkeeper, he was a full-time starter in 2023/24 for il Grifone, ranking 15th of 25 qualified shot-stoppers in save percentage.
The Partenopei have plenty of talent in their own right, though. Rasmus Højlund and Scott McTominay both returned after scoring 12 and 10 goals, respectively, last season, and Kevin de Bruyne (limited to just 18 games because of injury), should hopefully be healthier than he was in 2025/26. Last season, Napoli scored the fifth-most goals in the Italian top flight from the fourth-most shots on target, and it brought in Alisson Santos and made Højlund’s transfer permanent without losing any significant contributors. Still, the Partenopei are off to a slow start in the attack this season, managing the sixth-fewest expected goals so far, but given that they’ve managed to put only six of their 26 shots on target, luck has definitely played a role, and their high pass completion rates are encouraging. Furthermore, Napoli was pretty strong defensively in 2025/26, allowing the seventh-fewest goals and the third-fewest shots on target, and it’s allowed the fifth-fewest expected goals through the first two matches. In fact, there are some areas in which the Partenopei have been better defensively so far than the Nerazzurri, averaging the fifth-most tackles and the third-most blocks while winning aerial duels at a rate nearly as high. I trust Alex Meret in between the sticks more than I do Martínez.
Ultimately, I trust Napoli’s attack to look better than it did in the first two matches of the season, as it has more clinical ability than it has displayed thus far. Although de Bruyne isn’t quite the player he was in his prime, the fact that he’s healthy effectively gives the Partenopei an option that they didn’t have last season, and I find it hard to believe that a team with Højlund, McTominay, and de Bruyne will continue one of the worst attacks in Italy. However, even without Dumfries, Inter’s defense is simply too strong, and its press could frustrate Napoli, which has made the second-most errors leading to a shot so far. I like the Nerazzurri to either win or draw in a fairly low-scoring one.
