Texas has played poor enough baseball to carry a -51 run differential, and somehow they’re about to head into September two games outside of a potential playoff berth. At 67-70, the Rangers currently sit two games behind Houston in the AL West. Their final series against these lowly Athletics should feel almost felicitous, except it won’t. The A’s have already won six of 10 meetings in the season series between these two, and outscored Texas 44-39 in aggregate. They took two of three earlier this month, including an 8-3 victory behind rookie phenom Gage Jump, who starts tonight. Texas, however, returns to Sacramento tonight in better form: they’re whacking a 112 wRC+, .180 ISO, and 15 home runs across its last 12 games. Still, the Athletics have lost three straight, and Sunday’s 5-1 lead disappeared behind another bullpen botch job. It’s kind of anyone’s game. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Texas Rangers and the Athletics.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Rangers vs. Athletics prediction, preview
To the joy of all those who invested in him as a rookie, Jump has pitched considerably better than his 4.69 ERA on the season. Still, August has exposed all the command insecurities from his prospect days. His 3.74 FIP, 4.25 xERA, 25.2% strikeout rate, and .318 xwOBA describe a burgeoning and promising major-league starter. However, he’s walked 17 across 25⅓ August innings, raising his WHIP to 1.62 and forcing too many pitches before the third trip through the lineup.
Jump’s 96.3 mph four-seamer rips velocity and suppreses hitters into a a .343 xwOBA, but opponents have also slugged .494 against it. His slider, however—and, like deGrom’s—has been excellent, holding opponents to a .284 slugging percentage. The changeup and sinker still need a ton of work. As a whole, the pitch mix, however, will always survive if Jump owns counts. His 10.9% season walk rate says he doesn’t yet do it nearly enough.
These Rangers watched it all play out just about two weeks ago. Jump allowed one infield single through five innings, but four walks and one strikeout had already pushed him near 100 pitches. Brandon Nimmo grounded out to begin the sixth before Corey Seager walked, and Ezequiel Duran beat out an infield single. Jake Burger then punished Jump’s 101st pitch, a 96.8 mph fastball left over the middle, for a three-run homer. Jump finished with three hits and three runs allowed across 5⅓ innings, despite controlling most of the evening. He has since followed two poor starts with 6⅓ innings, nine strikeouts, and two runs against Minnesota. Texas must make him work again. They should be able to. Against lefties, they post an obscene .327 OBP, .417 SLG, and 112 wRC+ this season.
Jacob deGrom’s August has carried two versions of the same magnificent, increasingly complicated, aging, sometimes-still-dominant pitcher. Earlier this month, held Washington to one hit across six scoreless innings; he struck out 10 and walking one. Five days later, Chicago scored eight runs against him in just 3.2 innings; deGrom walked five, struck out two, and needed 42 pitches during a bloody six-run first. He now has a 7.20 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, and 13 walks across 20 August innings. All that five-star machinery under the hood, however, remains persuasive: a 3.19 FIP and a 3.20 SIERA. His signature 91.3 mph slider still generates a 40.1% whiff rate and .245 xwOBA for the poor hitters in the box squared against it. However, the heater’s just gone. deGrom’s 97.3 mph four-seamer has allowed a .517 slugging percentage and 53.1% hard contact.
Athletics vs. Rangers pick, best bet
The Athletics possess one hitter equipped to complicate Degrom’s slider-heavy success. Lawrence Butler has hit .400/.556/.650 over six games, and has been a nightmare for pitchers at the plate. He’s walked in 25.9% of his plate appearances during this time. He has also produced 1.98 runs above average per 100 sliders this season. Otherwise, it’s all uninspiring for the A’s. The lineup behind Butler has been hollowed out. Shea Langeliers, Nick Kurtz, Brent Rooker, Tyler Soderstrom, and Jacob Wilson are effectively done from the year; that removes a whopping 73 home runs from projected lineup. Jeff McNeil been fine with making contact with most pitches to keep the lineup moving, but his slider value sits at -1.33 runs per 100 pitches. Tommy White is at -1.73, while Jonah Heim is somehow at an utterly-cratered -5.02.
Texas’ bullpen is the reason I’m not comfortable laying 1.5 runs. Rangers relievers own a 7.11 ERA over the last week, and the pen threw 95 pitches Sunday. Jakob Junis has worked three times since Wednesday, while Tyler Alexander covered 31 pitches in Milwaukee. This is a gassed staff. The Athletics counter with an MLB-worst 5.57 bullpen ERA, although their rested leverage arms have supported a 1.59 mark over seven days. With the roof expected closed, weather should contribute little to either offense. The 7.5 total asks for trust in two August ERAs above 6.00 and two vulnerable primary fastballs. We’ll do just that! Smash the over tonight; I doubt Jump finds strike-zone comfort against these streaking Rangers, and Butler turns into Pete Crow-Armstrong against sliders. He’s also as hot as he’s ever been. deGrom should be able to handle his business, mostly, but I like some runs on the board.
Best bet: Rangers vs. Athletics o7.5 total runs (-105).
Projected score: Rangers 5, Athletics 4.
Best bet: Rangers vs. Athletics o7.5 total runs scored (-105)
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