It is a loaded Sunday of MLB action with all 30 teams suiting up across the slate. The Cincinnati Reds and Washington Nationals will open up the slate at 12:15 p.m. ET, building all the way out to a Sunday Night Baseball matchup between the San Diego Padres and Houston Astros. With some favorable weather and intriguing pitching matchups, here are my top three home run props across the 15-game MLB slate, featuring Wilyer Abreu, Alec Burleson and Fernando Tatis Jr.
It should be a great Sunday to swing for the fences with these juicy home run props!
Best MLB home run bets today
| Best MLB home run bets today | Team | Why I like the pick |
|---|---|---|
| Wilyer Abreu | Red Sox | Abreu is posting a 1.222 slugging percentage across the past week and has tallied nine hits and four home runs across his past five games. Facing J.T. Ginn, who has allowed 13 HRS this year and nine to left-handed hitters, expect Abreu to remain hot with another long ball. |
| Alec Burleson | Cardinals | Michael Lorenzen will be on the mound for the Rockies against the Cardinals today. Lorenzen has allowed 17 HRs this season and Alec Burleson is 4-for-5 against Lorenzen with two home runs. |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | Padres | After a slow start to the season, Fernando Tatis Jr. is up to 10 HRs and is posting a .966 OPS across his past 11 games. He has one HR in four at-bats against Cristian Javier in his career, and the Astros’ starter has struggled greatly against right-handed hitters all season. |
As we dig into the box and get ready to swing for the fences, let’s start with a reminder that all home run props are long-shot bets. However, when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate and can also quickly build your bankroll. Even the top power hitters are more likely not to homer than to go yard on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or combine them in a parlay or round-robin format to maximize the potential payout.
Let’s dive deeper into these three plays on Sunday.
Top MLB home run props today: Analysis
Wilyer Abreu to Hit a Home Run (+323)
The Boston Red Sox have been the hottest team in baseball, and Wilyer Abreu is a major reason why. Abreu is slashing .256/.331/.462 with a .793 OPS on the season overall. The left-handed slugger is up to 20 home runs and 62 RBIs, including four home runs over his past five games. He has a 1.222 slugging percentage across the past week.
J.T. Ginn will be on the mound for the Athletics today. The right-hander enters with a 3.51 ERA across his 23 appearances, including 13 home runs allowed. Seven of these home runs have come across his past seven games, and nine of the 13 home runs allowed have come against left-handed hitters this season. He is posting a 4.53 ERA over his past nine starts, with six home runs allowed during that stretch.
Abreu has not needed any additional advantage as of late and expect him to capitalize on the vulnerable pitching matchup. He arrives on a five-game hitting streak, with multiple hits in four of these matchups and four home runs across this stretch. Abreu has not faced Ginn yet in his career, but back him to remain hot and continue adding to his home run total on the season with another long ball today.
Alec Burleson to Hit a Home Run (+381)
The St. Louis Cardinals will face off with the Colorado Rockies today, with Michael Lorenzen on the mound. Lorenzen has been one of the top home run prop targets all season, as he enters with a 6.94 ERA on the season and 17 home runs conceded. The right-handed pitcher leads the MLB with 156 hits and 83 earned runs allowed on the year. He is also posting a 13.50 ERA across his past three starts and has allowed three home runs across this stretch.
Alec Burleson has faced off against Lorenzen in five at-bats in his career to this point. He is 4-for-5 in these matchups with two home runs and three RBIs in these opportunities. Burleson leads the Cardinals with 125 hits on the season and is posting overall slash lines of .283/.348/.473 with an .821 OPS on the year. The former Silver Slugger has tallied 18 home runs and 77 RBIs on the season.
Burleson is less than a week removed from his three-home run-performance against the Yankees, but his bat has largely gone silent since this point, with just one hit in the four games since. Expect the favorable matchup with Lorenzen on the mound to be what it takes to get Burleson back on the right track. This is as desirable a matchup as could be asked for, and Burleson has delivered with two home runs in five opportunities against the Rockies’ starter in the past. Expect him to further add to this tonight by putting one over the fence.
Fernando Tatis Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+357)
Closing down tonight’s MLB slate, the San Diego Padres will face off with the Houston Astros. Cristian Javier will be on the mound for Houston tonight, creating a favorable matchup for the Padres’ star-studded lineup. Javier has made just nine appearances this year and five starts. He is posting a 6.59 ERA across 27.1 innings pitched, with four home runs allowed this season. Javier has given up as many as 25 home runs in a season already in his career, with 80 allowed overall.
It was a slow start to Fernando Tatis Jr.’s season, but the three-time All-Star is beginning to return to form. He is up to 10 home runs on the season and is posting overall slash lines of .281/.352/.409 with a .760 OPS on the season. Tatis Jr. arrives on a five-game hitting streak with two home runs across this stretch, and he is slashing .326/.408/.558 with a .966 OPS across his past 11 games.
Tatis Jr. has also had success against Javier in his career. The two have faced off four times, and he has one home run in these opportunities. The Astros’ starter has been much more vulnerable to right-handed hitters, allowing a .993 OPS to righties compared to a .694 OPS to left-handed opponents this season. Every home run allowed has come to right-handed hitters this year. Expect Tatis Jr. to remain hot in this matchup that he has had success with in the past and deliver with a home run tonight.
