Saturday’s MLB schedule has three afternoon games, three early evening matchups, seven games around 7:00 p.m. ET, and two nighttime matchups to close out the action. All 30 teams are on the scoreboard, offering a wide variety of matchups and environments as we search for home run props to fill up Saturday. Warm and humid conditions with winds blowing out set up some good spots for today’s home run props. My top home run props for Saturday are from Drake Baldwin, Seiya Suzuki and Willi Castro.
It should be a great Saturday to swing for the fences with these juicy home run props!
Best MLB home run bets today
| Best MLB home run bets today | Team | Why I like the pick |
|---|---|---|
| Drake Baldwin | Braves | Baldwin has 20 HR on the season, and he’ll be on the strong side of his splits against Gerrit Cole, who has allowed 11 homers in 13 starts, including eight long balls in six starts at Yankee Stadium. Lefties like Baldwin have 9 of the 11 homers he has allowed this year. |
| Seiya Suzuki | Cubs | Suzuki has 19 HR on the season, including 4 in his 20 games since the All-Star break. He’s 2-for-9 with a homer against Royals starter Seth Lugo, who has allowed 15 homers, including eight to righties this season. |
| Willi Castro | Rockies | Castro has only 13 HR this season, but he has four homers in his last 8 games, going 11-for-29 with a .559 wOBA and .517 ISO. He’s in a favorable matchup against lefty Matthew Liberatore. |
As we dig into the box and get ready to swing for the fences, let’s start with a reminder that all home run props are long-shot bets. However, when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate and can also quickly build your bankroll. Even the top power hitters are more likely not to homer than to go yard on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or combine them in a parlay or round-robin format to maximize the potential payout.
Let’s dive in for a deeper look at these three plays on Saturday.
Top MLB home run props today: Analysis
Drake Baldwin to Hit a Home Run (+353)
Baldwin and the Braves are in New York facing the Yankees at Yankee Stadium, where the forecast is for a brisk breeze out to right-center field. Baldwin has hit 20 homers this season, setting a new personal best in his 93 games while hitting .273 with an impressive .360 wOBA and 51.1% hard-hit rate.
He hasn’t homered in 13 games, but he has continued to hit the ball well, with a 55.6% hard-hit rate over his last six games. Of Baldwin’s 20 homers, 13 have come against righties, who he has a .384 wOBA against. His most recent home run came off righty Rico Garcia of the Orioles.
The favorable home run environment on Saturday afternoon will be counter-balanced a little bit by a good pitching matchup between Gerrit Cole and Chris Sale. Cole has been solid in his last few outings, but the righty did give up eight homers in his six home starts this season, and lefties like Baldwin have hit nine of the 11 homers against Cole this season. Cole hasn’t been totally lights out, and with the favorable condions, Baldwin has a real chance to put one out of Yankee Stadium on Saturday afternoon.
Seiya Suzuki to Hit a Home Run (+450)
The Cubs are in Kansas City to take on the Royals this weekend, and on Friday, they won their fifth straight game. Suzuki had a pair of hits and two RBIs in the team’s 6-4 win, and he’ll be in a good spot to go yard on Saturday night against Seth Lugo.
Suzuki has hit 19 dingers on the year, including four since the All-Star break. He has a .411 wOBA and .234 ISO in his last 20 games since the break, and he also has a 15% barrel rate over his last six contests, including this blast against the Dodgers.
Suzuki has hit 12 of his 19 homers against righties like Lugo, whom he has homered against in the past while going 2-for-9. Lugo has allowed 15 homers in his 23 starts this season, and righties like Suzuki actually have more homers than lefties, even though they only have 168 at-bats against Lugo, while lefties have 321 at-bats.
At these odds, Suzuki brings very solid value to his home run props against Lugo, who is having a down year for the disappointing Royals.
Willi Castro to Hit a Home Run (+740)
Castro’s a long-shot play, but the veteran switch-hitter has been a streaky power producer throughout his career and is on a great run right now. Getting him at over 7:1 is a high-risk option but also brings lots of upside.
Castro has hit seven of his 13 homers this season over his last 19 games. He has six homers since the All-Star break and four in his last eight contests. Four of his long balls have come in his last eight games, including a huge homer on Tuesday against the Rays.
While that homer was at Coors Field, most of his homers this year have actually come on the road, where he is hitting only .219 but has seven homers. Over his last eight games, he has a 25% barrel rate and a 40% hard-hit rate, and since the All-Star break, he has a 20.5% barrel rate, which is more than double his barrel rate for the season.
On Saturday, he’ll face Matthew Liberatore of the Cardinals, who has served up 19 homers in 22 starts this year, including 10 in his 11 starts at Busch Stadium. Righties have 13 of the 19 homers against him, and he was knocked around in a few starts before the end of July. He looked better in Toronto last Sunday, but the Rockies’ offense has been much better lately, even though they have dropped four straight.
Castro’s power surge makes him a good long-shot value play in this matchup, and he has proven he can be a solid power producer when he’s locked in like this at the plate. His 13 homers are already a career high, and the 29-year-old has quietly had a very solid first season in Colorado.
