Boston reaches Sunday night with four consecutive victories and an opportunity to sweep baseball’s most talented roster. The Red Sox won Friday 9-4 before grinding out Saturday’s 3-2 victory. They have now secured eight consecutive series and improved to 59-51. Los Angeles remains 69-42 with baseball’s best +154 run differential, but the Dodgers have dropped three of five. Ceddanne Rafaela has driven Boston’s surge with three homers across the series’ first two games. Saturday’s two-homer performance included a game-tying blast before Boston’s eighth-inning winning rally. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Boston Red Sox.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Dodgers vs. Red Sox prediction, preview
Jake Bennett gives Boston a considerable starting-pitching advantage. The rookie owns a 6-4 record, 2.74 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 3.07 xERA, and .273 xwOBA. Opponents have produced a .362 xSLG, 87.5 mph exit velocity, 36% hard-hit rate, and 5.6% barrels. Bennett’s 18% strikeout rate appears modest, but his 4.3% walk rate prevents self-created innings. His last five starts produced a 2.20 ERA across 31 2/3 innings. Bennett allowed eight earned runs, three homers, and only four walks while completing at least six innings four times.
Boston’s offense owns ordinary season-long numbers, including a .244 average, .315 OBP, .394 slugging percentage, and 107 homers. Its present lineup has found a more productive shape through Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu, Jarren Duran, Willson Contreras, and Andruw Monasterio. Rafaela has homered three times across four at-bats during this series and owns 14 homers overall. Abreu carries a .459 xSLG, 92 mph average exit velocity, 49.2% hard-hit rate, and 12.7% barrels. Los Angeles remains considerably deeper through Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Kyle Tucker, Teoscar Hernández, and Andy Pages.
Emmet Sheehan’s 4.95 ERA exaggerates his underlying weakness. He owns a 3.77 xERA, 3.98 xFIP, .301 xwOBA, 27.4% strikeouts, and 14.5% swinging strikes. Sheehan has allowed two earned runs or fewer during four of his last five starts. Those five appearances produced a 3.96 ERA with 28 strikeouts across 25 innings. His home-run profile remains the central vulnerability. Sheehan has surrendered 17 homers in 92 2/3 innings, alongside a 9.8% barrel rate and 20.4-degree launch angle. Boston’s left-handed power can exploit that airborne contact.
Red Sox vs. Dodgers pick, best bet
Los Angeles has produced a .262 average, .341 OBP, 568 runs, and 143 homers. However, the Dodgers posted a .254/.314/.410 line and 98 wRC+ against left-handers during July. Bennett’s sinker and changeup can move away from Los Angeles’ right-handed core while attacking Ohtani and Freeman inside. The game’s 88-degree temperature and eight mph outward wind increase home-run variance. Boston also owns the fresher bullpen structure. Red Sox relievers rank third with a 3.42 ERA, while Los Angeles ranks eighth at 3.77. Edwin Díaz and Will Klein remain unavailable for the Dodgers.
Los Angeles deserves favoritism through offensive depth, home field, and overall roster quality. The price still asks too much from Sheehan against baseball’s hottest team. Boston’s +153 moneyline implies only a 39.5% victory probability. Bennett’s contact suppression, command, recent workload, and favorable left-handed matchup move Boston closer to 43%. That estimate produces fair odds near +133. The Red Sox also possess the stronger active bullpen and have already handled two superior Dodgers starters during this series. Boston’s +1.5 line offers safety, but the moneyline carries the card’s better value.
Best bet: Red Sox ML (+153), playable through +140
Projected score: Red Sox 5, Dodgers 4
Best bet: Red Sox (+155) vs. Dodgers
Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
