The Arizona Diamondbacks will take on the Cleveland Guardians at 7:15 p.m. ET today, as part of the full 15-game slate. These teams opened up the series yesterday, which resulted in a 4-1 win by the Diamondbacks.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Guardians hold -180 odds of winning outright and +119 odds on the -1.5 run line on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Diamondbacks hold +148 odds of winning outright with the run total set at 8.5.
Diamondbacks vs. Guardians prediction, preview
The Arizona Diamondbacks are off to a 58-52 start to the season, currently in line for a Wild Card opportunity if the season ended today. They enter this matchup on a three-game winning streak, and are 9-5 since returning from the All-Star break. On the season overall, they’re 59-51 to the run line and the run total is 46-58-6 to the over/under.
Kohl Drake will get the start for the Diamondbacks tonight, leaving a bit of a question mark for this matchup. Tonight will mark just his third start of his MLB career, and he has just 9.0 total innings pitched. Drake pitched 5.0 innings in his MLB debut against the Athletics, finishing with four hits, one earned run, and five strikeouts in the victory. In his second start, the 26-year-old was chased after 4.0 innings of work after allowing five hits, two home runs, and four total runs in a 10-7 loss to the Nationals. The rookie is posting a 5.00 ERA and 1.444 WHIP overall.
The Diamondbacks are posting overall slash lines of .241/.313/.391 with a .704 OPS on the season. Arizona ranks 18th in the league in hits, 13th in total runs, 29th in home runs, and has tallied the third-fewest strikeouts in the MLB. Ketel Marte headlines the production with 108 hits, 19 home runs, and 62 RBI on the season. Corbin Carroll adds 98 hits of his own, along with an MLB-best 12 triples, 15 home runs, and 49 RBI. Nolan Arenado is the lone other player with double digit homers, with 14 four-baggers and 50 RBI of his own. Gabriel Moreno and Geraldo Perdomo also play important roles.
The Cleveland Guardians enter with a 56-55 record on the season, which slots them at third place in the American League Central. They have struggled a bit out of the All-Star break, going 5-9 overall, and Cleveland has dropped seven of its past nine games played. On the season, the Guardians have gone 58-53 to the run line and the run total is 51-60 to the over/under.
Parker Messick will be on the mound for the Guardians and has been a major bright spot for the team this season. The 25-year-old earned his first All-Star appearance and enters today with an 8-6 record, a 2.59 ERA, a 1.037 WHIP, 11 home runs allowed, and 122 strikeouts tallied across his 125.1 innings pitched. He has allowed just one earned run in four consecutive starts, and has thrown 5.0 innings or greater in every start this season. Messick has only faced this Diamondbacks’ lineup in 16 at-bats in his career, limiting them to four hits allowed and three strikeouts tallied.
Cleveland is slashing a collective .229/.309/.367 with a .676 OPS. The Guardians rank last in the MLB in hits, tied for last in total runs, 27th in home runs, and 15th in strikeouts. Brayan Rocchio leads the team with 99 hits, nine home runs, and 50 RBI on the season. Chase DeLauter has been their most dangerous hitter of late and will be looking to add to his 96 hits, 11 home runs, and a team-high 51 RBI. Jose Ramirez, Kyle Manzardo, Angel Martinez, and Rhys Hoskins also have tallied 10+ home runs on the season, while Steven Kwan and Travis Bazzana also play key roles.
Diamondbacks vs. Guardians pick, best bet
The uncertainty surrounding Kohl Drake casts a little bit of doubt on the outlook of this game. It has been a mixed bag of results through his first two MLB starts, and the jury is still out regarding the caliber of pitcher he will be. It is also worth acknowledging that Arizona is posting a collective 4.11 bullpen ERA on the season, which ranks 16th in the MLB.
While Cleveland has had some collective struggles at the plate, Parker Messick has done a nice job consistently putting the Guardians in a position to win, and expect the same today. Cleveland is 12-9 in games that Messick has pitched overall, even while his official W/L record is 8-6. The 25-year-old boasts a 2.59 ERA and has not allowed more than 4 earned runs in any start this season. He is posting a 1.48 ERA across his past four starts.
The Guardians’ production at the plate has been inconsistent and underwhelming on the season overall. But they have shown some signs of life since the All-Star break, ranking 19th in hits, 26th in runs, and 21st in home runs. Drake does not have a true defining put away pitch yet in the early stages of his career, which the Guardians should be eager to capitalize on. Expect Cleveland to do enough damage against the youthful pitcher and for the Guardians pitching staff to do the rest.
With Messick holding a major advantage in the starting pitching matchup and Cleveland having a better bullpen as well, the offensive shortcomings can be overlooked. This is a great bounce-back spot for the Guardians, and it would not shock me if this is a humbling matchup for the rookie pitcher. I am backing Cleveland to cover the 1.5-run line and for Messick to extend his strong stretch of starts to deliver in front of the home crowd tonight.
