All 30 MLB teams are in action today across the Saturday slate, with the Philadelphia Phillies taking on the Baltimore Orioles at 7:05 p.m. ET. These teams opened this interleague series yesterday, with the Orioles winning 6-4.
Looking at the odds for tonight’s matchup, the Phillies enter as -149 favorites and hold +113 odds on the -1.5 run line on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Orioles are listed at +123 odds to win outright, with the run total set at 8.
Phillies vs. Orioles prediction, preview
There have been some massive ups and downs for the Phillies already this season. They limped to a 9-19 start, leading to Rob Thomson being fired with a spark sent through the organization. Philadelphia looked to right the ship, entering the All-Star break with a 54-43 record, but have faced some similar struggles of late and are narrowly floating above .500 with a 57-53 record entering tonight. The Phillies have gone just 3-10 since returning from the All-Star break, have lost four straight games, and have lost eight of their last nine. On the season overall, the Phillies have gone 42-68 to the run line, and the game total 47-58-5 to the run total.
Cristopher Sanchez will take the ball for the Phillies tonight as the team looks to stop the bleeding. The All-Star starter enters with a 13-4 record, a 2.73 ERA, a 1.204 WHIP, 12 home runs allowed, and 157 strikeouts tallied across 138.2 innings pitched. Sanchez has faced off with this Orioles lineup in 44 at-bats in his career, holding them to 12 hits and 13 strikeouts in these opportunities.
At the plate, they are slashing a collective .236/.303/.399 with a .702 OPS. Philadelphia ranks 24th in hits, 18th in runs, eighth in home runs, and has struck out the seventh-most times of all teams in the MLB. Trea Turner leads the Phillies with 109 hits on the season, plus16 home runs and 43 RBI. Brandon Marsh has cooled off of late, but is in the midst of a breakout season with 107 hits, 16 home runs, and 48 RBI of his own. Kyle Schwarber leads the National League with 33 home runs and 62 RBI, while Bryce Harper is not far behind him with 22 home runs and 65 RBI. Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott, and J.T. Realmuto also play key roles.
The Baltimore Orioles enter tonight’s matchup with a 54-56 record, which slots them in fourth place in the American League East. They have gone 8-5 since returning from the All-Star break and are looking to ride the momentum of back-to-back victories. On the season overall, the Orioles have gone 57-53 to the run line, and the run total is 58-49-3 to the over/under.
Shane Baz is scheduled to get the start for the Orioles tonight. The 27-year-old enters with a 4-9 record, a 3.98 ERA, a 1.385 WHIP, nine home runs allowed, and 107 strikeouts tallied across 122.0 innings pitched. Baz has faced off with this Phillies lineup in 29 at-bats in his career, with nine hits and seven strikeouts allowed in these opportunities.
The Orioles are slashing .237/.321/.395 with a .716 OPS. Baltimore ranks 23rd in the league in hits, 12th in runs, 16th in home runs, and has tallied the fourth-most strikeouts in the league. Pete Alonso leads the team with 104 hits on the season, plus 23 home runs and 69 RBI. Taylor Ward is the lone other player to record 100+ hits and leads the American League with 86 walks along with his seven home runs and 30 RBI. Gunnar Henderson and Coby Mayo combine for 32 home runs and 87 RBI, while Leody Taveras, Jackson Holliday, and Tyler O’Neil also play notable roles.
Phillies vs. Orioles pick, best bet
The Orioles picked up a 6-4 win over the Phillies in yesterday’s matchup. Andrew Painter had one of the most encouraging outings of his young MLB career, turning over a 4-2 lead to the bullpen after six innings. But the bullpen collapsed to allow Baltimore to steal the 6-4 win, which has been an unfortunate theme for Philadelphia in recent weeks. The four-run seventh inning by the Orioles proved to be the difference, and the Phillies’ losing streak was further extended.
Things are looking bleaker and bleaker for the Phillies, with the trade deadline an important point for the expected postseason threats. They will turn the ball to Cristopher Sanchez tonight and will need the star pitcher to shine to the level he has shown for most of the season. While he currently is listed at the third-best odds of winning the NL Cy Young at +900 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, Sanchez has shown some vulnerabilities of late. The 29-year-old has allowed 17 earned runs across his past four starts after giving up just 26 total earned runs across his first 18 games pitched this season.
On the other side of the pitching matchup, Shane Baz has had a respectable season for this Orioles team. He has a 3.98 ERA on the season, but a 3.06 ERA over his past 12 starts, and he has not allowed a home run in five consecutive appearances. Baz has pitched through 4.1 innings in every game this season, and 5.0 or more in 18 of the 21 opportunities. He has not allowed more than five earned runs in any outing this year, and has limited opponents to two or fewer earned runs in nine of his past 12 starts.
It is tough to find much reason for optimism about this Phillies team in their current state. This has been a flawed roster all year, but they have largely been carried by their brightest stars. But as players like Schwarber, Harper, Marsh, and Sanchez have cooled down a bit, the results of the team have shifted quite a bit with this. For Philadelphia to have a pathway to win in this game, it will require a strong performance from Sanchez. He has looked the part of the ace they hoped he could grow into for the bulk of the season, but his 6.65 ERA across his past four starts is cause for concern.
Ultimately, I am backing the Orioles to defend their home field advantage and produce the win tonight. Between Sanchez coming off some concerning outings, the Phillies’ bullpen ERA being at nearly 6.00 over the past month, and the bats going cold, there are too many flaws to be currently covered up. This team will get back on the right track at some point, but there is a lack of life with the way they are currently playing, and Baltimore is capable of exploiting this. The Orioles have won back-to-back matchups, eight of their past 13, and will ride the momentum to another victory in this favorable matchup tonight.
Best bet: Baltimore Orioles Moneyline (+123)
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