The battle for the AL Wild Card is an absolute fistfight. As things stand, the Minnesota Twins and the Seattle Mariners are on the outside looking in, but things can change in a matter of days. The trade deadline is around the corner, and both teams may look quite different by the end of Monday; the Twins ostensibly fired the starting pistol with a trade this week. Which of these playoff hopefuls will take the win on Saturday?
Seattle enters as a -173 moneyline favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s get into a preview, prediction, and pick for this contest.
Twins vs. Mariners prediction, preview
First things first, let’s look at the starting pitchers in this matchup.
Connor Prielipp steps to the bump for Minnesota on Saturday. The rookie left-hander has sure taken his lumps this season, holding a 4.73 ERA through 14 starts and 72.1 innings. Prielipp’s live fastball hasn’t exactly translated, and it’s no wonder he is struggling when that pitch doesn’t fool opponents. But he has found a pitch to lean on in his curveball; opponents are generating a .144 expected batting average against the curve with a 38.6% whiff rate. For a struggling rookie, any port in a storm is welcome, and hopefully the curve gives him a foundation to build on.
Opposite him is Logan Gilbert. One of the most consistent pitchers in baseball, Gilbert is turning in another excellent season for Seattle. He’s not racking up the strikeouts the way he used to, and the hard contact is a tick up, but he still finds a way to get outs. Gilbert pumps in a ton of fastballs, but it’s his secondary pitches that are truly killer. The batting averages allowed on his slider, changeup, curveball, and splitter are all .200 or below. All four pitches also boast a whiff rate above 30%. That all adds up to a 3.44 ERA through 21 starts, and a 97th percentile run value amongst starting pitchers.
Minnesota’s lineup has been surprisingly robust this season. Production from Ryan Jeffers, Trevor Larnach, Brooks Lee, and Kody Clemens has turned a suspect group into a strong one, ranking 11th in wRC+ on the season. Of course, Byron Buxton has been the star man when healthy, although he’s currently sidelined with a hip injury. Clemens delivered one of the moments of the season against the Royals this week, snatching victory from the jaws of defeat.
According to Statcast, that’s the first “ultimate grand slam” to come on an 0-2 count. What a moment.
Seattle’s offense hasn’t been so robust, and Cal Raleigh’s inexplicable struggles have been at the center of it. The injury struggles of Julio Rodriguez and Brendan Donovan have played a role as well. But they continue to get elite production out of Randy Arozarena, and Dominic Canzone has been the quiet star nobody saw coming. Perhaps with the right deadline acquisitions, Seattle can get back to having an explosive offense.
Now we know these teams a bit better; who is going to come out on top?
Twins vs. Mariners pick, best bet
Prielipp is due for some positive regression, but this is an overmatched pitching duel. Gilbert is spinning the ball extremely well, and Minnesota’s lineup just isn’t the same without Byron Buxton. Gilbert will set the tone, and the bats and bullpen will do the rest.
