Games right before the trade deadline are always weird. It’s likely that a handful of players on the St. Louis Cardinals and the Toronto Blue Jays will be playing elsewhere by Monday’s deadline, but that doesn’t lessen the stakes. Some guys are playing to convince management they’re a part of the future, and though some won’t admit it, they’re going hard to make themselves appealing to contenders. That brings an interesting dimension to this matchup.
Toronto enters as a -142 favorite on the moneyline on the DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s get into a preview, prediction, and pick for this contest.
Cardinals vs. Blue Jays prediction, preview
First things first, let’s look at the starting pitchers in this matchup.
Southpaw Quinn Mathews is being called up for his major league debut on Saturday. The sixth-best prospect in the St. Louis system according to MLB Pipeline, Mathews was a workhorse while at Stanford and made huge strides in his development through college. Mathews’ fastball sits in the mid-90s, which is nothing to write home about, but it’s his knee-buckling changeup that has made him a big prospect. Mathews also brings a solid slider and curveball to the table to round out a solid four-pitch mix.
Opposite Mathews will be Kevin Gausman, who could be making his last start for the Blue Jays. As a 35-year-old on an expiring contract for a team well outside the playoff picture, a deal is as good as done. It’s going to be a bittersweet finish to a five-season run that includes an All-Star nod and a trip to the World Series.
Gausman can still get it done and will have more than a few suitors before the deadline. He throws his four-seam fastball more than half the time, and it still generates a lot of swing-and-miss stuff. The splitter isn’t what it used to be, but it changes the eye level of the hitter in a valuable way and has been his most effective pitch overall. His slider, which he uses only 10% of the time, has been getting knocked around a fair amount, which has reduced him to a two-pitch guy.
Offense hasn’t been fun for either team this season. St. Louis and Toronto rank 23rd and 27th in wRC+, respectively. Rookie JJ Wetherholt has been a bright spot for the Cardinals, and though his progress has stalled, Jordan Walker’s breakout campaign marches on. Toronto’s story is more about who isn’t performing; Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s power has completely disappeared, and soon-to-be-traded George Springer has gone off a cliff. With injuries affecting a large part of the roster, Toronto’s massive offensive regression has taken them from AL champs to firm deadline sellers.
Now we know these teams a bit better; who is going to come out on top?
Cardinals vs. Blue Jays pick, best bet
Though Mathews should have some nerves going into his first-ever major league start, he gets a soft landing against a struggling Blue Jays offense. I don’t trust Toronto to put up enough runs to separate in this one. But Gausman will do his job against a similarly feeble Cardinals lineup, leading to a close, low-scoring contest when things are handed off to the bullpens.
