DKNetwork Logo DKNetwork Logo
Montreal Alouettes vs. Ottawa Redblacks prediction, pick for Friday 7/31/26

Montreal Alouettes vs. Ottawa Redblacks prediction, pick for Friday 7/31/26

Published:

By: Garion Thorne

Can they do it? Can the 0-6 Redblacks finally get a win? Ottawa will be in tough in Week 9, as it’ll welcome 6-1 Montreal to TD Place on Friday night.

Let’s preview this East Division clash and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.

Alouettes vs. Redblacks prediction, preview

Let’s go back to Week 7 for a moment, when Ottawa was so, so close to breaking this losing streak. Up 26-9 heading to the fourth quarter against the Blue Bombers, the Redblacks surrendered 17 unanswered points in the final frame, only to then lose 36-34 in a seemingly never-ending OT session. It was a tough luck loss, but one that at least gave the promise that the season’s first win might be on the horizon. That said, I feel like the Alouettes will pose a much tougher challenge than a Winnipeg squad playing without it’s starting QB.

Montreal’s explosive offense is led by the three-pronged attack of Davis Alexander, Tyson Philpot and Travis Theis. Alexander is having a wonderful beginning to his first full, healthy season as a starting quarterback in the CFL, though it can’t be forgotten that Davis helped lead the Alouettes to the Grey Cup in 2025 while fighting various ailments. Entering Week 9, Davis leads the league with 2,368 passing yards, and he’s thrown only one interception to his 11 touchdowns. Most of that aerial damage has come in partnership with Philpot, who certainly seems like the frontrunner for Most Outstanding Canadian through eight weeks, if not for Most Outstanding Player. The wideout leads the CFL in targets (73), receptions (63) and receiving yards (839). Finally, Theis has really rounded into form the past three games, compiling 373 rushing yards and three touchdowns in the month of July. That includes a career-high 156 rushing yards in Week 8 versus Hamilton.

It’s honestly a real “David vs. Goliath” situation on Friday night. The Alouettes are producing the most yards per game of any team in Canada (444.4), while the Redblacks are surrendering the most points (35.5) and the most yards (437.2) per contest. It just doesn’t feel like Ottawa has the horses to slow Montreal down.

The Redblacks could also have a difficult time keeping up on the scoreboard. The team has zero rushing attack to speak of, coming into tonight’s action ranking dead-last in rushing yards per game (63.3) and rushing touchdowns (4). That imbalance makes life even more challenging for Jake Maier, who sits dead-last in QB efficiency among the league’s starters (87.9). The fact that Maier’s thrown as many interceptions (8) as he has touchdowns (8) certainly isn’t helping matters. Maier’s best performance of the season did come back in Week 4 against these same Alouettes in Montreal, yet it’s tough to imagine a similar showing this evening.

Alouettes vs. Redblacks pick, best bet

Best Bet: Alouettes -6.5 (-108)

The Alouettes are 5-2 ATS this season, and they’re undefeated within the East Division (4-0). I have a hard time envisioning the league’s worst defense shutting down (maybe) the league’s top offense.

Strong Lean: Tyson Philpot Over 104.5 Receiving Yards (+100)

Philpot is on the heels of his worst performance of the season, but he was averaging 146.2 receiving yards per game in his five starts prior to Week 8. That includes a season-high 198 yards and 12 catches against the Redblacks in Week 4.

Garion is a Toronto-based writer who has been playing fantasy sports since elementary school. With a particular affinity for advanced statistics and sabermetrics, he’s been covering DFS Baseball, Football and Basketball for DraftKings dating back to 2018. Prior to that, Garion’s work could be found at FNTSY, SportsGrid, HoopsHype, The New York Daily News and Sportsnet.ca. Still, he is a Dolphins fan, so his decision-making can be questioned from time-to-time.
Disclaimer

All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.