NL East foes are set to meet tonight at Truist Park. The Nationals (55-54) are one of the trade deadline’s biggest enigmas. Despite rumors surrounding several key pieces, Washington could make a second-half push for a wild card spot. As for the Braves (63-45), they hold a 6.5-game lead over Philadelphia for first place. Taking down a rival tonight would set Atlanta up nicely going into this weekend series.
The Braves are favorites (-156) over the Nationals, with the over/under set at 9.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Thursday’s showdown between Washington and Atlanta on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Nationals vs. Braves pick, best bet today
- Nationals vs. Braves over 9.5 runs (-118): There’s no good reason to trust Irvin, making his first start in two months. However, Holmes’ shaky peripherals could spell trouble against a lethal Nats lineup. The safest play on the board tonight is the over.
Nationals vs. Braves prediction, preview
In spite of their star-studded lineup, the Nationals are hovering around .500 thanks to lackluster pitching. The front office is hoping that the return of Jake Irvin could help out on the mound. The right-hander has been sidelined for over two months due to a shoulder strain. Granted, the 29-year-old wasn’t very impressive prior to getting hurt. Through 11 starts (51.2 IP), he notched a 5.23 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 58 strikeouts (10.1 K/9). During the season prior, he put up a ghastly 5.70 ERA and allowed a league-worst 38 home runs. Irvin sits within the sixth percentile in barrel rate (12.0%) and hard-hit rate (45.8%).
That’s not exactly ideal heading into a matchup with one of baseball’s most formidable lineups. The Braves are sixth in runs scored (526), fourth in home runs (141) and ninth in OPS (.729). To boot, former NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. was recently activated off the injured list. In short, there’s no room for error when taking on this group of All-Stars. Atlanta is tied for the fifth-highest OPS at home against right-handed pitching (.773). To make matters worse, Washington owns a National League-worst 5.03 bullpen ERA.
Toeing the slab for the Braves on Thursday will be Grant Holmes. It’s been a solid campaign from the 30-year-old, a reliable middle of the rotation option for Atlanta. Over 97.1 innings pitched (19 starts), he’s accounted for a 3.79 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 83 strikeouts (7.7 K/9). However, it’s safe to say that the third-year pro has gotten fairly fortunate this season. He’s beneath the 30th percentile in several key advanced metrics. That includes average exit velocity (90.7 MPH), walk rate (10.2%), barrel rate (8.9%) and hard-hit rate (43.0%). Holmes has had a knack for allowing home runs (1.4 HR/9) and free passes (4.0 BB/9).
That’s a bad mix heading into a matchup with baseball’s highest scoring roster. The Nationals are pacing the league in runs scored (596), home runs (159) and OPS (.774). That’s due in large part to All-Stars James Wood (156 wRC+) and CJ Abrams (150 wRC+), arguably the sport’s most dangerous duo. However, there’s more than enough depth in DC. Four different players on the roster (min. 200 plate appearances) have a wRC+ above 100. Washington has scored 56 runs over its previous ten contests, fourth-most in the majors during that stretch.
Best Bet: Nationals vs. Braves over 9.5 runs (-118)
Neither pitcher taking the mound tonight is someone bettors should implicitly trust. However, both of these lineups have proven they can swing it with the best of them. Irvin and Holmes both give up their fair share of home runs. Washington and Atlanta’s sluggers should make an impact on Thursday.
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