Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top two home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Thursday’s miniature evening slate: Matt Olson and Wilyer Abreu.
Let’s break them down.
Best MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson | +233 | Jake Irvin will make his first MLB start since May 23 on Thursday. Before the injury, the 29-year-old managed a 5.23 ERA and an identical 5.23 xERA across 51.2 innings. In that span, Irvin also surrendered a fourth percentile opponent barrel rate (12.0%) and a sixth percentile opponent hard hit rate (45.8%). This, after leading the league in long balls surrendered in 2025 (38). Look for Olson to take advantage. |
| Wilyer Abreu | +280 | Mason Barnett is expected to make his first MLB start of 2026 this evening. It’s a small sample, but LHBs are slashing .304/.385/.609 off Barnett with 2.53 home runs per nine. Abreu isn’t exactly on fire at the moment, but he’s a great bet at Sutter Health Park — the second-best place to go deep since the beginning of 2025 according to Baseball Savant’s Park Factors. |
In-depth analysis below.
Top MLB Home Run Props Today
Matt Olson 1+ Home Run (+233)
Welcome back to the big leagues, Jake Irvin. A shoulder injury has kept the right-hander off a major league mound since all the way back on May 23, which was, somewhat ironically, a start where Irvin tossed five scoreless frames against this same Braves team. I have my doubts that this go-around will be as smooth and successful. Let’s recap the first two months of Irvin’s campaign, shall we? The 29-year-old managed a 5.23 ERA and an identical 5.23 xERA across 51.2 innings. In that span, Irvin also surrendered a fourth percentile opponent barrel rate (12.0%) and a sixth percentile opponent hard hit rate (45.8%). Remember, Irvin had serious long ball issues in 2025, too. The issue being that no one gave up more home runs last season than he did (38). Olson, who has two career bombs off Irvin, is obviously in a great spot to add a third this evening.
Wilyer Abreu 1+ Home Run (+280)
This is a weird one. Everything is suggesting that I back a left-handed Red Sox to hit a home run this evening. The only problem? Boston has virtually zero power from the left-side, especially with Abreu and Jarren Duran (+481) in massive slumps. Even so, I’ll take my chances with Abreu, as 11 of his 16 hits in July — he’s only batting .180 — have at least gone for extra bases. Again, this matchup is just so good. Mason Barnett is expected to make his first MLB start of 2026 on Thursday, after working 24.2 innings out of the A’s pen. It’s a small sample, but LHBs are slashing .304/.385/.609 off Barnett with 2.53 home runs per nine. Add in that Sutter Health Park has been the second-best place to go deep since the beginning of 2025 according to Baseball Savant’s Park Factors, and this is quite the chance for Abreu to get back on track.
