The WNBA All-Star break is now in the rearview mirror, and the playoff push is on for the home stretch of the season. Three games of action will be taking place across the Thursday slate. Tipping off at 8:10 p.m. ET, the Minnesota Lynx will take on the Toronto Tempo.
This is the third matchup of the season between these two sides and the second half of back-to-back games between the pair. When they faced off on Tuesday, the Lynx cruised to a 100-93 win. Minnesota also came out on top over Toronto in the first matchup this season in a 100-72 win, which took place on May 21st.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Lynx enter as 11.5-point favorites and hold -710 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Tempo hold +486 odds of pulling off the upset, with the game total set at 186.5 points.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Lynx at Tempo matchup.
Lynx at Tempo Preview
The Minnesota Lynx lead the WNBA with a 23-6 record on the season. They enter this matchup looking to extend an eight-game winning streak. On the season overall, the Lynx have gone 16-13 against the spread, and the game total is 18-11 to the over/under.
Olivia Miles has stepped up into the forefront of the production for the Lynx, posting averages of 19.5 points, 6.0 assists, and 4.8 rebounds across her rookie season. This has been while Napheesa Collier has largely been sidelined from her offseason ankle surgeries. The five-time All-Star and back-to-back MVP runner-up made her return just before the All-Star break and is posting averages of 19.5 points and 8.0 rebounds across her first two games played. Kayla McBride contributes 18.2 points and 3.6 rebounds, while shooting 40.4% from beyond the three-point arc, while Natasha Howard adds 15.8 points and 7.9 rebounds per game of her own. Courtney Williams is the lone other player to be averaging double figures, while Nia Coffey and Maya Caldwell also play key roles.
The Lynx rank second in the WNBA in scoring at 91.8 points per game. Minnesota also ranks second in offensive rating, second in field goal percentage, and second in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are averaging 83.2 points per game against the Lynx, the third-lowest rate in the league. They also rank second in defensive rating, first in opponent field goal percentage, and third in opponent three-point percentage.
The Toronto Tempo have slipped to 10-17 in their inaugural season in the WNBA. They enter this matchup looking to snap a four-game losing streak, and have lost eight of their past nine games. On the season overall, Toronto has gone 14-13 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 18 of their 27 games played.
Injuries have been a major factor in Toronto’s struggles, and this will continue to remain the case. Brittney Sykes does not appear close to returning due to her left foot issue, forcing the Tempo to make up for her 20.1 points per game. Kiki Rice made her return from a near two-month absence due to an ankle injury in Tuesday’s matchup, and will look to add to her season averages of 11.9 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 2.7 assists. Marina Mabrey has scaled up her scoring during their absence, contributing 21.1 points and 3.7 assists, while shooting 38.8% from beyond the three-point arc on 8.4 perimeter shots per game. Nyara Sabally has missed back-to-back games, and her status is worth monitoring leading up until tip-off as the lone other player scoring in double figures.
As a team, the Tempo are scoring 88.7 points per game, which ranks eighth in the WNBA. Toronto also ranks seventh in offensive rating, eighth in field goal percentage and third in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are averaging 93.2 points per game against the Tempo, ranking 14th in the WNBA. The Tempo also rank last in defensive rating, 13th in opponent field goal percentage and fifth in opponent three-point percentage.
Lynx at Tempo Pick, Best Bet
These are two teams trending in opposite directions, so expect this to be put on full display in this matchup. Minnesota picked up a 100-93 win over Toronto on Tuesday, in which they led for 72% of the matchup and extended their lead to as many as 17. This was despite the Tempo shooting 45% from the field, 37% from beyond the three-point arc, and out-rebounding the Lynx in a relatively encouraging performance. Toronto was able to cover the 16.5 spread.
It was a wire-to-wire win by the Lynx in the first matchup between these two teams, which Minnesota ultimately won 100-72. Toronto shot just 34% from the field, 29% from beyond the three-point arc, and were out-rebounded 46-25 in this matchup. This was one of the more concerning games played by the Tempo this year, but closer to the standard that has been set by the Lynx.
While there are fair reasons for belief that Toronto is better than the overall record shows, the defensive problems they face are too much to overlook. The Tempo rank 14th in opponent points allowed and dead last in defensive rating. This is a problem against the high-octane offense of the Lynx, who have not even hit their full gear on the season without Napheesa Collier as part of the attack. It should be concerning to the rest of the WNBA how good this team has continued to look without the former Defensive Player of the Year, and the early signs of her fitting in without missing a beat are extremely encouraging.
Toronto has shown some admirable scrap in its approach to these matchups, but the gap in talent is too significant to overlook for this game. Expect Minnesota to be disappointed in the way they allowed Toronto to hang around and be ready to make a statement. My lean would be toward the game total going over, given the defensive shortcomings of the Tempo and the rate at which the over has hit for each of these teams. But I am taking advantage of the five-point line shift from Tuesday’s matchup and laying the -11.5 spread for the Lynx to produce the blowout victory on the road against this youthful Tempo team. Expect Toronto to take a step back in offensive production and for Minnesota to put up points at a rate its opponent cannot come close to matching.
