The Padres are in a crucial stretch of their season.
Despite trade rumors swirling, San Diego has won its last four games and is back up above .500. On Wednesday, the team will finish its two-game mini-series with the Rockies, then invite the lowly Giants to Petco Park for a four-game set starting on Thursday. After that? The Padres head to Arizona for a four-gamer against the Diamondbacks, who happen to be inhabiting the final Wild Card spot in the NL at the moment.
It’s make or break, and it all begins with what should be a winnable contest this afternoon. Let’s preview this divisional clash and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rockies vs. Padres prediction, preview
It’s funny to transition directly from the Padres’ playoff path to their starting pitching question mark on Wednesday, but that’s the reality of the situation. Here’s what we (probably) know. Griffin Canning will be involved in some capacity, whether that’s as a traditional starter or as a bulk man working behind an opener. In Canning’s last appearance on July 23 in Atlanta, Kyle Hart pitched the first inning, and he could be an option again, especially with the amount of left-handed bats at the top of the Rockies’ lineup. Either way, it’s easy to see why Craig Stammen is trying to get creative. Canning’s been awful in 2026, pitching to a 6.97 ERA and a 5.24 FIP. A second percentile opponent hard hit rate (48.1%) is pretty damning, as well.
On the positive side of things, San Diego has at least been hitting well enough in the past two weeks to possibly overcome Canning’s woes. In fact, since the All-Star break, the Padres rank first in MLB in batting average (.297), first in expected wOBA (.352) and second in wRC+ (144). Part of that success is Ty France continuing his absurdly fantastic campaign, yet an even bigger aspect has been Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill finally playing up to their standard. In this 11-game sample, the duo have combined for eight home runs and 23 RBI. That’s even more incredible when you remember that Tatis, specifically, had just five long balls at the end of the season’s first-half.
Attempting to slow down San Diego’s red-hot bats will be Gabriel Hughes. It’s been a very encouraging start to the rookie’s time in MLB, as Hughes owns a 2.79 ERA and a 2.08 FIP over 19.1 innings with the Rockies. It’s not as if Hughes is some massive prospect, either. While the 24-year-old is formerly a first-round pick in 2022, Hughes is only listed at No. 18 on MLB Pipeline’s rankings. Hughes was also pitching to a 5.31 ERA in Triple-A, though PCL stats have to be taken with a grain of salt. It’s impossible to pull anything definitive from a sample so small, but I’ll say this: Hughes has conceded just a single barrel in the 52 batted ball events he’s induced in the majors. If he can sustain even half that rate, he’ll surely survive at this level.
Rockies vs. Padres pick, best bet
Best Bet: Mickey Moniak 2+ Total Bases (+119)
Moniak has a .400 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Meanwhile, Canning is allowing opposing LHBs to slash .329/.408/.596. If Moniak sees Canning twice, I think he exceeds this prop with ease.
