The race for the NL Wild Card is a hot one. The Philadelphia Phillies still hold one of those spots, and while they aren’t out of the NL East race, it’s likely they’ll look to the Wild Card to qualify. Meanwhile, the Marlins remain in the race to the surprise of all, and could bolster their chances at the upcoming trade deadline. Suffice it to say, these division-rival matchups sure mean a lot to both teams.
Let’s get into a preview, prediction, and pick for this contest.
Phillies vs. Marlins prediction, preview
First things first, let’s look at the starting pitchers in this matchup.
Jesús Luzardo, the former Marlin, steps to the mound for the Phillies. A key cog in Philadelphia’s excellent starting rotation, Luzardo turned in his first All-Star campaign this year, and is on pace for a career season. If he keeps up the pace he’s on, Luzardo figures to get a fair chunk of Cy Young votes as he gets further away from a rough start. At the end of April, Luzardo had a 5.50 ERA. He got that down to 4.30 at the end of May, then 3.88 at the end of June. Now he’s at 3.31 in the midst of his hottest stretch of the year; Luzardo has allowed one earned run or fewer in six straight starts, holding a 1.23 ERA over 36.2 innings with 55 strikeouts.
As usual, Luzardo is doing it by striking everybody out while avoiding hard contact. His sweeper, a pitch he didn’t throw until he got to Philly two years ago, has become his primary pitch. It’s a vicious pitch, mixing both speed and break, and has kicked his productivity into a new gear.
Ryan Gusto will act as the opener for the Marlins once again. He’s played that role seven times so far this season and has a 4.50 ERA in 12 appearances. Typically, Gusto throws 2-3 innings before handing things over to a deep Marlins bullpen. He has an awfully diverse offering, throwing seven different pitches with regularity. While Gusto hasn’t been elite as a strikeout or ground ball guy thus far, he doesn’t get himself in trouble with walks, a quality that manager Clayton McCullough seems to like.
Philadelphia’s offense has struggled all year long. They’re 27th in wRC+ on the season, and they’re only getting consistent production from Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and Brandon Marsh. Other than that, things have been rough. Trea Turner, Alec Bohm, and Bryson Stott are all having disappointing seasons in the infield. They’re struggling mightily for consistency in center and right field. Unless GM Dave Dombrowski can make some big upgrades before the deadline, it’s hard to see this team making much noise in the playoffs, despite an elite starting pitching trio.
Meanwhile, the Marlins are hitting it awfully well. Led by Otto Lopez, the current NL batting average leader, Miami gets production up and down the lineup. Youngsters like Xavier Edwards, Owen Caissie, Joe Mack, and Heriberto Hernandez have all made valuable contributions. Kyle Stowers has recovered well after injuries plagued the start of his season. Liam Hicks remains their best hitter, but whether or not he survives the trade deadline is anyone’s guess with trade rumors swirling.
Now we know these teams a bit better; who is going to come out on top?
Phillies vs. Marlins pick, best bet
Great pitcher vs. great offense, and a bullpen game vs. a struggling offense. It’s a strange matchup to evaluate here. But Luzardo is scorching hot, and Miami’s lefty-heavy lineup is going to have problems with him. Gusto isn’t perfect, but Miami has done well in their bullpen games. Even at the low total, the value is on the under here.
