If I told you the Washington Nationals would be better than the Toronto Blue Jays, you’d ask how bad my concussion is, then check whether I knew where I was and what year it was. But here we are. Washington remains in the running for an NL Wild Card spot, while Toronto sits at the bottom of the AL East, contemplating being trade deadline sellers after a World Series run.
Toronto sits as a -125 moneyline favorite on the DraftKings Sportsbook. A Washington upset is priced at +103, and the over/under is set at 9.5 runs.
Let’s get into a preview, prediction, and pick for this contest.
Blue Jays vs. Nationals prediction, preview
First things first, let’s look at the starting pitchers in this matchup.
Young phenom Trey Yesavage takes the mound for Toronto on Wednesday. After taking the playoffs by storm as a rookie, Yesavage has quietly turned in a strong first full season with the Jays. While his 3.92 ERA won’t dazzle you, the underlying numbers love him; Yesavage’s .197 expected batting average is 92nd percentile amongst all starting pitchers, and he generates a strong 30.6% whiff rate.
The young Toronto hurler approaches things in a unique way for a starter, utilizing only three pitches: a four-seam fastball, a splitter, and a slider. It’s typically the sort of arsenal you’d see for a reliever, but Yesavage makes it work. He’s using the fastball about half the time, and the splitter has become his preferred secondary pitch, with strong results. If the 23-year-old can clean up his weakness for issuing walks, he can turn into the ace we saw flashes of during the 2025 playoffs.
Opposite Yesavage is Zack Littell. One of Washington’s big offseason acquisitions, Littell has been an unequivocal flop. Through 21 appearances (13 starts), Littell has a 5.17 ERA, and the underlying numbers would argue he’s been even worse. Just look at his Baseball Savant page.
Manager Blake Butera has tried piggybacking Littell on top of an opener, but it hasn’t worked very well. The reality is, he’s the biggest weakness in their rotation and might find himself out of a job after the trade deadline. Blue Jays hitters sure won’t mind seeing him on the bump.
The gap between these offenses is large, to say the least. Washington is tied for the top wRC+ mark in the league with the Los Angeles Dodgers, while Toronto is third-to-last in the league. The departure of Bo Bichette, Vlad Guerrero Jr.’s inexplicable offensive regression, and a whole slew of injuries have set them back awfully far. It’s no wonder they are going nowhere in a hurry and will likely be selling off some players before Monday’s trade deadline.
Now we know these teams a bit better; who is going to come out on top?
Blue Jays vs. Nationals pick, best bet
So, we’ve got a great pitcher going against a great offense, and a terrible pitcher going against a terrible offense. How does this one balance out? My gut tells me: a whole lot of runs. Not only does Washington’s lineup have a ton of power, but they’re also awfully patient and know how to draw walks. That patience at the plate will play well against Yesavage, while Toronto’s bats will find a way to be successful against Littell. Even at this high total, the over is worth the price of admission.
