The Los Angeles Dodgers remain atop the MLB, though their margin for the best record continues to shrink little by little. Tonight, they kick off the first series of this homestand with game one against the Seattle Mariners, who’ve won just one of their last six outings. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET on Tuesday night.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Mariners vs. Dodgers game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Mariners vs. Dodgers prediction, preview
Seattle hasn’t had a great season by any means, and after losing four of its last six outings, the club is back below the .500 mark. At 52-55, the M’s are now third in the AL West with a +8 run differential. The back-to-back champs moved to 67-31 on the year with a pair of wins over the weekend. Now, the Dodgers have a +155 run differential and have extended their lead in the NL West to 12.5 games.
For the Mariners, tonight’s starter is RHP Luis Castillo (3-9). It’s been a rough year in terms of ERA for the veteran at 4.85, but a 1.33 WHIP isn’t bad by any means. Now, his strikeouts are down too, with 84 over 94.2 IP and a 23.4% K%; his BB% remains stable at 7.2%, though. As for Seattle’s relievers, they have a 3.52 ERA that ranks fifth, plus a 1.28 WHIP and a 13.9% K-BB%.
LHP Justin Wrobleski (11-2) gets the ball for the Dodgers this evening. He’s performed admirably this season with a 2.62 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP. Granted, the strikeout potential is low with only 80 over 106.2 IP and an 18.9% K%; a 5.0% BB% more than makes up for it. Los Angeles’ bullpen brings a 3.94 ERA that falls 11th, a 1.25 WHIP and a 14.8% K-BB%.
These lineups find themselves at polar opposites of the stat sheet, too. Seattle ranks 28th in overall OPS (.686) and runs per game (4.01) as well as 25th in ISO (.146) and 16th in homers (124). The Mariners are also staring down the wrong end of the splits against a left-handed pitcher, slashing .221/.304/.338 for a .642 OPS. As for Los Angeles, the club sits second in overall OPS (.771), fourth in runs per game (5.15), third in ISO (.171) and eighth in home runs (136)… all with great plate process, too. The Dodgers slash .266/.346/.438 against right-handers, good for a screaming .784 OPS.
Mariners vs. Dodgers pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Dodgers as -238 Moneyline favorites at home tonight with the Mariners set as +193 road underdogs. The run total sits at 9.5 for this one.
Castillo enters this game with a 30th-percentile grade in average exit velocity, a 32nd-percentile mark in hard-hit rate, and a 23rd-percentile barrel rate. He’s facing a Dodgers lineup that is among the best in the sport to begin with, but especially so against right-handers. That doesn’t bode well for him, and the Mariners’ splits against lefties like Wrobleski – who has been excellent this year – are more reason for concern. At a hitter-friendly park in Los Angeles, taking the home side to cover the run line feels like a prudent play.
