The NL Central is arguably the best division in baseball this season, bringing four teams locked closely into the postseason chase with one more that’s on the upswing at the moment. Tonight, the series between the Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals continues as these division rivals clash at 7:45 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Cubs vs. Cardinals game, courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cubs vs. Cardinals prediction, preview
The Cubs are 60-46 on the year with a run differential of +80, sitting second in the NL Central at six games back of the top spot. Since the All-Star break, they’re 6-4 over a 10-game sample as well, so things are still going pretty well in Chicago at the moment. On the opposite side, the Cardinals are in something of a tailspin –they’re only 3-8 coming out of the break and are now 53-53 this year with a differential of -5. That has them down to fourth in the division.
RHP Colin Rea (7-7) starts for the Cubs this evening. He has elevated marks of a 4.85 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP, and his K% of 17.5% comes from just 81 strikeouts over 105.2 IP. His last few games in particular have been a little bit shaky, giving up at least three earned runs in each of his last three starts. The Chicago bullpen slots in at 15th in ERA at 3.98 with a 1.31 WHIP and a 12.5% K-BB%.
RHP Michael McGreevy (4-8) is the starter for the Cardinals here. He’s far outperformed his underlying metrics with a 3.07 ERA and 1.13 WHIP this year. His 74 strikeouts over 114.1 IP are paltry with a 16.3% K%, but a 5.9% BB% is elite on the other end. St. Louis’ relievers rank 21st in ERA at 4.37 with a 1.38 WHIP and a 9.7% K-BB%.
There’s a noticeable disparity between these bats, too. The Cubs rank fourth in club OPS (.755) and third in runs per game (5.17). An 11.0% BB% leads the MLB and an 0.50 BB/K ratio ties for the best in baseball as well, but they don’t sacrifice power for process. A .168 ISO comes in at seventh and their 133 home runs are 10th most. Chicago also slashes .241/.332/.407 with a .740 OPS against right-handed pitching.
The Cardinals’ lineup started the season hot but has cooled off in a big way since the first couple of months. They’re now 25th in OPS (.696) and 16th in runs per game (4.42). A lack of power is a big reason for that, ranking third-to-last in ISO at .141 with 112 homers, 22nd in the sport. They do keep strikeouts down with a K% of just 20.4%, though a BB% of 8.5% isn’t much to write home about. Against right-handers, the Redbirds slash .240/.314/.382 with a .696 OPS.
Cubs vs. Cardinals pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Cubs as -114 Moneyline favorites on the road tonight with the Cardinals just behind as -105 home underdogs. The run total sits at nine combined runs.
McGreevy is yet to throw against Chicago this season, but his track record isn’t great against the Cubs in the past. Their hitters have gone 18-for-55 against him with three homers, four walks and five strikeouts, slashing .327/.373/.509. That’s concerning for St. Louis’ outlook, even with the hurler keeping earned runs down. With the way he’s outperformed a ninth-percentile xERA (5.48) and a sixth-percentile xBA (.286) this season, this feels like the kind of matchup that could see him experience some regression. The Cubbies have also been very effective coming out of the All-Star break with an .823 OPS. It may be a close one given Rea’s numbers on the bump, but I’m still very comfortable taking Chicago for an outright win here.
