Baseball is a game of inches, and fortunes can change quickly. Less than a month ago, the Boston Red Sox looked destined for a trade deadline fire sale and a missed postseason, and the Athletics looked to at least have a chance to make the playoffs for the first time with their young core.
Now, headed into the middle game of a three-game set at Sutter Health Park tonight at 9:40 p.m. ET, Boston’s spot in the playoffs looks secure, and the Athletics are in real danger of finishing with the worst record in the American League.
Jake Bennett will start tonight for the Red Sox, and the Athletics will turn to Gage Jump.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Boston Red Sox at Athletics Best Bets
- Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+103): This is a battle between arguably the MLB’s hottest team and its coldest, and the Athletics just lost arguably their best player in Shea Langeliers. Bennett should out-duel Jump, and the battle between the bullpens isn’t even close.
- Under 10 (-114): Still, 10 runs is a high bar, even at Sutter Health Park. Last night’s game, which featured a pair of worse starting pitchers, finished with just six runs.
Boston Red Sox at Athletics prediction, preview
On July 2, Boston was 11 games below .500 and couldn’t have realistically dreamed of making a playoff push, but then the Red Sox made history, winning a franchise-best 15 straight games before finally losing to the Baltimore Orioles on July 22. Since then, Boston has picked up three wins and another loss, including a 4-2 victory in the series opener last night, and per FanGraphs, it has nearly a three-in-four shot at making the playoffs. For the season, the Red Sox have had the 11th-worst offense, but over the last 30 days, that’s risen to 13th-best, as Willson Contreras has become a genuine MVP candidate and Cedanne Rafaela has made significant two-way contributions. Additionally, Boston has paired its offense with the league’s eighth-best rotation and its best bullpen, and although the Red Sox got somewhat weaker by trading Connelly Early, they have plenty of starting pitching depth and could get Garrett Crochet back in the postseason.
The Athletics hung around the playoff picture for a while, as they sat at 38-38, but over the last month and a half, they’ve collapsed, losing 24 of their last 30 games. For the season, the Athletics still have an average offense, but across the last 30 days, they’ve had the sixth-lowest OPS, and their best overall player, Shea Langeliers, is now out for the season after tearing his meniscus. The Athletics could still be fine on offense thanks to Nick Kurtz, who ranks fifth in the AL in OPS this season, but backup catcher Jonah Heim has struggled at the plate and Langeliers will be a huge loss. Additionally, though Sutter Health Park’s hitter-friendly conditions certainly don’t help, the Athletics have had an awful pitching staff, ranking 29th in rotation ERA and 30th in bullpen ERA, and their best starter, J.T. Ginn, is currently on the IL. They have three relievers with an ERA north of 6 and at least 30 innings pitched.
Bennett has been an unsung hero as a rookie. He was called up in May to make two starts, went back down for four, and has been part of the MLB rotation since, pitching to a 2.20 ERA across eight starts. Bennett shut down a fellow AL East playoff team in the first game after the All-Star break, giving up just one hit across six scoreless innings against the Tampa Bay Rays, and he should be a pivotal piece of the rotation moving forward. Advanced numbers are extremely high on Boston’s sixth-ranked prospect, as he ranks in the 84th percentile in expected ERA. While he doesn’t throw very hard, Bennett has been especially spectacular at inducing chases, and his exceptional control should be an asset against the Athletics, who employ a relatively patient plate approach. Additionally, Bennett has done an excellent job limiting hard contact, ranking in the top quartile in average exit velocity and barrel rate, and the Athletics still have a devastating pair of power hitters in Kurtz and Tyler Soderstrom. He should be in line for another effective outing even though the Athletics have had baseball’s best home offense.
For his part, Jump has also been a serviceable back-of-the-rotation starter, even though he’s been inconsistent on a start-to-start basis. Jump got his career off to a great start, recording a 2.04 ERA through his first six starts, but he’s been in poor form, allowing three or more earned runs in four of his last five starts and pitching to an 8.31 ERA across that span. Jump’s true ability likely lies somewhere in between; he ranks in the 44th percentile in expected ERA with a 4.24 mark that’s close to his actual, season-long number. He’s been pretty good at incentivizing chases, which could pose additional issues for an aggressive Red Sox lineup, and he’s rarely given up barrels. The key for Boston will be finding the right launch angle, as he does rank in the bottom quintile in both average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage, but the Red Sox rank among the league’s bottom five in both of those stats. Jump has the tools to limit Boston’s offense tonight, but the splits aren’t in his favor, as he’s been far worse at Sutter Health Park and the Red Sox somewhat better on the road.
Boston Red Sox at Athletics pick, best bet
Best Bet: Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+103)
In this battle of talented rookies, Bennett is the better pitcher in better form, and Langeliers’ injury has taken a lot of the juice out of this Athletics lineup. Jump is better than Jack Perkins, who started yesterday’s game, but I’d argue that Bennett is better than Payton Tolle.
Strong Lean: Under 10 (-114)
Even at Sutter Health Park, this line feels pretty high. Boston’s offense has been good-but-not-spectacular since the All-Star break, and its pitching has been spectacular. Four of the Red Sox’s last five games have gone under, and three of the Athletics’ have.
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