American League contenders are set to meet tonight for the second of a four-game series. On Monday, it was the Yankees (60-46) that broke through late en route to a 9-5 victory. New York will hope to keep rolling against the AL Central-leading White Sox (55-50). A young Chicago squad will be looking to prove itself against one of the better teams in baseball on Tuesday. Who has the edge going into this potential playoff preview?
The Yankees are favorites (-124) over the White Sox, with the over/under set at eight runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Tuesday’s showdown between New York and Chicago on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Yankees vs. White Sox pick, best bet today
- Yankees vs. White Sox under 8.5 runs (-141): New York, in its current state, hasn’t done much against opposing southpaws. As for Cole, he comes into Tuesday in the midst of a solid stretch during the month of July. Runs could be more difficult to come by for both clubs this evening.
Yankees vs. White Sox prediction, preview
Gerrit Cole will be taking the mound, his 12th start since making his season debut back in May. The former Cy Young winner hasn’t quite been elite, but he remains one of baseball’s best arms. Over 62.0 innings pitched, the right-hander has recorded a 3.92 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 66 strikeouts (9.6 K/9). Per Savant, the veteran has been a bit of a mixed bag. He sits at the 20th percentile or worse in whiff rate (21.2%), barrel rate (10.7%) and hard-hit rate (43.1%). However, he also ranks inside the 70th percentile in fastball velocity (96.8 MPH), strikeout rate (25.9%) and walk rate (4.7%). The six-time All-Star has allowed three earned runs or fewer in each of his previous four appearances.
If there’s one area of weakness for Cole, it’s giving up the long ball (1.6 HR/9). That’s somewhat concerning going into Tuesday’s matchup. The White Sox have clobbered 136 home runs this season, seventh-most in the majors. Leading the way on offense is Munetaka Murakami. The Japanese slugger is slashing .240/.382/.541 with a team-leading 22 homers. Fellow standouts Miguel Vargas (130 wRC+), Sam Antonacci (126 wRC+) and Colson Montgomery (111 wRC+) form a strong position player nucleus on the South Side. Chicago has scored 52 runs over its previous ten contests, fifth-most in baseball during that stretch.
The biggest issue for the White Sox this season has come on the mound. Pitching depth has been difficult to come by, especially in the back end of this rotation. With that being said, Anthony Kay has done a solid job. He comes into Tuesday with a 4.21 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 80 strikeouts (7.3 K/9) over 98.1 innings. Still, those numbers might be fool’s gold. A look at Kay’s peripherals paints a far more negative picture. A 5.64 xERA and .268 xBA are both within the bottom 16th percentile among qualified starters. Kay does come into this one with some momentum; he’s allowed two earned runs or fewer during his last four outings. The lefty has also been more effective when pitching at Rate Field (3.06 ERA).
When Kay last faced the Yankees, he coughed up four runs over 4.0 innings. However, this isn’t the most intimidating lineup for the Pinstripes tonight. Big bats such as Aaron Judge (ribs) and Cody Bellinger (hamstring) are currently on the injured list. This offense ranks 25th in baseball with 82 runs scored since July 1st. During that time, New York has also notched the fifth-lowest OPS against left-handed pitching (.628). Other than Ben Rice (160 wRC+), none of the current Bronx Bombers strike much fear into opposing pitchers.
Best Bet: Yankees vs. White Sox under 8.5 runs (-141)
Cole’s tendency to allow homers is concerning, but he tossed six innings of two-run ball vs. Chicago back in June. On the other side, the Yankees have been awful over the past month against left-handed pitching. Kay isn’t the most impressive hurler, but he’s good enough to avoid getting shelled by New York. Expect both starters to hold their own in a lower scoring affair.
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