NL East foes are set to clash this evening in South Beach. The Phillies (57-50) have bounced back following a difficult start to the 2026 season. However, Philadelphia comes into this one having lost three of its previous four games. On Monday, a slumping Marlins (53-54) squad broke a 12-game losing streak thanks to a walk-off base hit from Griffin Conine. Miami still has a shot at playoff contention, but it needs to start racking up wins ahead of August 3rd’s trade deadline. Which of these clubs will pick up a much needed win on Tuesday night?
The Marlins are favorites (-112) over the Phillies, with the over/under set at eight runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Tuesday’s showdown between Philadelphia and Miami on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Phillies vs. Marlins pick, best bet today
- Marlins ML (-112): Nola’s inconsistency alone makes the Phillies a difficult bet tonight. Alcantara’s recent success, along with a middling Philadelphia offense, gives Miami the edge on Tuesday.
Phillies vs. Marlins prediction, preview
In an otherwise solid Philadelphia rotation, Aaron Nola has been an enigma. Once an All-Star, the 33-year-old has looked like a shell of his old self recently. Through 108.1 innings of work this season, he’s put up a 5.82 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 112 strikeouts (9.3 K/9). The advanced metrics paint a slightly better picture, but not by much. Nola has recorded a 4.33 xERA, suggesting he’s due for some positive regression. However, the veteran still sits within the 40th percentile or worse in fastball velocity (91.9 MPH), barrel rate (10.4%) and hard-hit rate (40.5%). He’s been slightly better on the road (5.06 ERA) than at home (6.70 ERA).
Unlike in seasons past, Miami’s offense has been respectable in 2026. Despite a lack of power, the Fish are 15th in runs scored (472), eighth in batting average (.251) and seventh in on-base percentage (.326). This lineup relies heavily on middle infielders Otto Lopez and Xavier Edwards. The former leads the majors with a .331 batting average, while the latter has already accumulated 2.6 bWAR over 107 games. However, the Marlins have scored a National League-worst 33 runs over their previous ten contests. They also average just 4.27 runs per game at home, compared to 4.56 on the road. Still, it’s worth noting that Miami has the ninth-best OPS in baseball against right-handed pitching (.741).
Taking the mound for the Marlins tonight will be none other than Sandy Alcantara. The 2022 NL Cy Young winner isn’t considered one of the sport’s elite arms at this point in his career. Regardless, Miami’s workhorse remains an intimidating presence on the mound. Over 143.2 innings of work (22 starts), he’s accounted for a 4.01 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 110 strikeouts (6.9 K/9). The Dominican has allowed three earned runs or fewer in eight of his last ten outings, putting up a 3.29 ERA during that time. That includes a six-inning, two-run outing on June 17th in Philadelphia. Alcantara has been much better at LoanDepot Park (3.26 ERA) than he has been on the road (4.66 ERA).
Getting runs against one of baseball’s premier arms is never easy. That’s especially true for a Phillies squad that has failed to live up to expectations this season. They rank 18th in runs scored (467) and 20th in OPS (.706). Granted, the Fightins are tied for fifth in home runs (137), but their .304 on-base percentage is worst in the National League. Alcantara has done a decent job of keeping the ball inside the park (1.1 HR/9). He’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last six meetings with the Phillies.
Best Bet: Marlins ML (-112)
Although Miami’s bats have been struggling over the past few weeks, Nola is the ultimate wild card. On the other side, Alcantara’s ability to limit walks and induce weak contact should play well against a homer-dependent Phillies lineup. At home, I’ll back the Marlins as slight favorites this evening.
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