Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday’s jam-packed slate: Griffin Conine, Junior Caminero and Riley Greene.
Let’s break them down.
Best MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Griffin Conine | +610 | In his 103 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Conine is slashing .289/.379/.611 with a .322 ISO and a 166 wRC+. That’s not to mention his overall 15.3% barrel rate and 55.6% hard hit rate. Now he’ll get the chance to face Aaron Nola, who is surrendering 2.98 opponent long balls per nine across his past eight starts. |
| Junior Caminero | +260 | In his past two starts, Cal Quantrill has surrendered 13 hits and eight earned runs over seven innings. In general, this is a man who comes into Tuesday’s action in possession of a third percentile strikeout rate (13.9%) and a 27th percentile opponent barrel rate (9.1%). That won’t cut it against Caminero and his 100th percentile bat speed (79.9). |
| Riley Greene | +335 | Greene is definitively at his best when in an opposite-hand matchup. Specific to 2026, Greene is slashing .307/.380/.519 against RHPs with a 149 wRC+ and 13 of his 15 home runs. Meanwhile, Dean Kremer’s HR/FB ratio in a gigantic 26.3%. He’s also allowing 3.26 long balls per nine to opposing LHBs. Woof. |
In-depth analysis below.
Top MLB Home Run Props Today
Griffin Conine 1+ Home Run (+610)
The Marlins snapped their 12-game losing streak on Monday, and it was primarily due to the red-hot Griffin Conine. The 29-year-old can’t seem to stay healthy, yet when he’s available, he’s been amazing in 2026. In his 103 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Conine is slashing .289/.379/.611 with a .322 ISO and a 166 wRC+. That’s not to mention his overall 15.3% barrel rate and 55.6% hard hit rate. Basically, Conine is a small sample king. These 6/1 odds don’t reflect Conine’s raw power, and they certainly don’t reflect Conine’s matchup on Tuesday night. The Marlins will face-off with Aaron Nola, who is surrendering 2.98 opponent long balls per nine across his past eight starts. Heck, for the season as a whole, Nola’s 25 home runs conceded are the most of any NL pitcher.
Junior Caminero 1+ Home Run (+260)
It’s 2026. I can’t believe Cal Quantrill is starting games for a team that currently leads the AL West. What is going on? The former first-round pick has survived for most of the season on luck and gumption, but if his last two starts are any indication, the walls are beginning to fall down. In that stretch, Quantrill has surrendered 13 hits and eight earned runs over seven innings. In general, this is a man who comes into Tuesday’s action in possession of a third percentile strikeout rate (13.9%) and a 27th percentile opponent barrel rate (9.1%). That amount of quality opponent contact is no way to live at the MLB level — because people like Junior Caminero are also at the MLB level. Caminero and his 100th percentile bat speed (79.9) are looking for their 30th home run of the season. This feels like a matchup where that can happen in the blink of an eye.
Riley Greene 1+ Home Run (+335)
At this point, we all know the deal with Greene. The former fifth-overall pick is simply a classic left-handed hitter: He’s definitively at his best when in an opposite-hand matchup. Specific to 2026, Greene is slashing .307/.380/.519 against RHPs with a 149 wRC+ and 13 of his 15 home runs. If you’re going to back him in this market, these are the splits you need to abide by. The righty on tonight’s menu? Dean Kremer of the Orioles. Kremer’s always been a fly ball pitcher, yet those fly balls are leaving the park at an unprecedented rate so far this season. It’s only a six-start sample, but Kremer’s HR/FB ratio in a gigantic 26.3%. He’s allowing 3.26 long balls per nine to opposing LHBs. It’s all bound to normalize at some point, but that point doesn’t have to necessarily be this evening.
