Arizona arrives at PNC Park at 55-51 after dropping two of three against Washington. Sunday’s 10-7 loss featured homers from Ketel Marte and Geraldo Perdomo, plus two Gabriel Moreno doubles. The Diamondbacks scored 32 runs across their last five games, including a 15-run eruption against The Athletics. Pittsburgh enters 54-52 after ending a three-game losing streak with Sunday’s 8-7 victory over Chicago. Ryan O’Hearn hit a grand slam, while Esmerlyn Valdez and Shawn Ross also homered. Two wild-card hopefuls open this series with both offenses carrying fresh extra-base damage. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Pirates vs. Diamondbacks prediction, preview
Merrill Kelly’s July has delivered his best work of a difficult season. He is 3-0 across four starts with six earned runs and an 18-to-eight strikeout-to-walk line. Kelly also threw seven innings of one-run baseball against San Diego earlier this month. His full-season numbers remain dangerous: a 5.12 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 65 strikeouts, 41 walks, and 20 homers across 103⅔ innings. His 5.86 FIP, 14.4% strikeout rate, and 1.91 HR/9 support the damage. Kelly has stayed below five strikeouts in 13 of 18 starts, creating heavy dependence on contact management.
That contact has been loud. Kelly has allowed a 90.4 mph average exit velocity, 45% hard-hit rate, and 16.5% home-run-to-fly-ball rate. His six-pitch arsenal begins with a 27.1% four-seam rate and 26.0% changeup usage. Cutters, curves, sliders, and sinkers split the remaining workload. The variety works when Kelly locates his fastball above barrels and buries the changeup. Misses around the belt have produced immediate damage. Pittsburgh owns 135 homers, a .260 average, .338 on-base percentage, .422 slugging percentage, and 553 runs. That lineup can punish Kelly before his sequencing settles.
Mitch Keller owns a 6-7 record, 4.90 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and 83 strikeouts. He has allowed three earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts. That stretch produced a 4.31 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and 25-to-10 strikeout-to-walk line across 31⅓ innings. His expected profile remains vulnerable: 5.23 xERA, .349 xwOBA, .286 xBA, .444 xSLG, 89.4 mph exit velocity, and 42.0% hard hits. Keller throws seven pitches, led by a 31.5% four-seamer, 17.7% sinker, and 16.2% sweeper. Hitters have slugged .613 against his cutter.
Diamondbacks vs. Pirates pick, best bet
Arizona is receiving production from nearly every lineup pocket. Gabriel Moreno has slashed .378/.444/.514 across his last 10 with 14 hits, nine runs, seven RBIs, and six walks. Ildemaro Vargas owns a .414/.452/.552 line with 12 hits and only one strikeout. Tim Tawa has supplied three doubles, two homers, six RBIs, and a .556 slugging percentage. Nolan Arenado has added two homers, nine RBIs, and a .930 OPS. Corbin Carroll’s recent damage includes two homers, two triples, three steals, and six runs. Pittsburgh’s best current bats fit Kelly’s contact-heavy approach just as well. Nick Gonzales has hit .364 with 16 hits, four doubles, two homers, six RBIs, and eight runs. Esmerlyn Valdez owns four homers, 10 RBIs, 10 walks, and a 1.085 OPS. Jared Triolo has reached base at a .429 clip, while Ryan O’Hearn enters behind Sunday’s grand slam and a team-leading 68 RBIs.
The injuries and bullpens keep both clubs exposed. Pittsburgh remains without Oneil Cruz, Spencer Horwitz, Konnor Griffin, and several catchers. Arizona has lost Jordan Lawlar, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and multiple important pitchers. Diamondbacks relievers own a 4.03 ERA, with Kevin Ginkel, Juan Morillo, and Jonathan Loáisiga all below 3.30. Pittsburgh’s bullpen carries a 4.60 ERA and recently removed Dennis Santana from the roster. PNC Park should see 87-degree weather with a light wind. Kelly’s July improvement and Keller’s recent length create danger, yet the contact profiles and bullpen depth support scoring. I’ll play over 9.5 at +102 through -110. Pittsburgh wins 6-5.
Best bet: Over 9.5 (+102)
Projected score: Pirates 6, Diamondbacks 5
Best bet: Pirates vs. Diamondbacks o9.5 total runs (+100)
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