All of a sudden, the Houston Astros have won four straight games and are probably believing in their ability to get back into the AL West race. Last night, they took down the AL Central-leading Chicago White Sox to open this weekend series on the road. First pitch for game two on Saturday is set for 7:10 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Astros vs. White Sox game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Astros vs. White Sox prediction, preview
In the win last night, the Astros came back from down 5-0 with a wild eight-run sixth inning. Christian Walker, LaMonte Wade Jr. and Cam Smith all recorded multiple RBI to help secure the win, chasing Davis Martin from the game in those middle stages.
Now, Houston is 4-3 since the All-Star break with a 51-54 record on the year and two games shy of the AL West lead, but the club does have a -41 run differential. Chicago remains atop the AL Central at 54-48 with a +40 differential after going 4-3 in seven games since the break as well.
Tonight’s starter for the visiting Astros is ace Hunter Brown (1-1), though he’s not looked like himself this year. The RHP’s season has been limited due to an injury that sidelined him for quite a while, so he has just eight starts to his name with a 4.05 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. He does have 43 strikeouts with a 24.3% K% in 40.0 IP, but a 15.8% BB% ranks in the bottom first percentile among MLB arms and is incredibly atypical for him. Houston’s bullpen brings a 4.17 ERA that ranks 18th with a 1.32 WHIP and a 12.7% K-BB%.
For the White Sox, LHP Sean Burke (7-4) gets the nod. He’s been excellent with a 3.20 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP and 120 Ks in 112.1 IP for a 26.2% K%. His BB% of 7.4% is also solid, and while he’s a below-average ground-ball pitcher, Burke’s numbers are quite good across the board otherwise. Chicago’s bullpen ranks 12th in ERA at 3.95 with a 1.33 WHIP and a 12.2% K-BB%.
We saw plenty of offense yesterday, but that’s no stunner. The bats are good on both sides, with the Astros averaging 4.59 runs per game and the White Sox at 4.78. The clubs are practically identical when it comes to overall OPS at .730 and .726, and both have plenty of power – the Astros rank fourth in ISO (.171) and the White Sox are seventh (.168), ranking third (143) and ninth (131) in homers. As for the right-handed splits, Houston slashes .244/.319/.419 for a .737 OPS while Chicago is at .243/.322/.411 for a .733 mark.
Astros vs. White Sox pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the White Sox as -126 Moneyline favorites at home tonight with the Astros set as +104 road underdogs. The run total sits at 8.5 for this one.
This should be a pretty good pitching matchup, but the concern here is that Brown may still continue to struggle. In three July starts with 14.2 IP under his belt, he’s allowed 13 earned runs and 15 walks with a 1.91 WHIP… woof. Something is clearly up with him – whether lingering impacts of injury or a mental block is tougher to tell – but this isn’t a great matchup to try and get back on track in. The Sox are a very good offense and could get the better of him. However, it’s also worth noting that Burke has been bad against the core of this Houston lineup in a limited sample. Opposing hitters are 9-for-17 against him with seven doubles, a homer, one walk and one strikeout. Now, that may not totally translate, but it’s enough to give pause in this situation.
The over on 8.5 runs may honestly be the best bet here tonight. After cashing over on nine last night, we’re running it back again. If you prefer a different pick, though, over 2.5 walks for Brown feels like a layup at -106 odds as well. He’s given up more than this line in each of his last three outings and five-of-eight on the year.
