The Boston Red Sox just tied a franchise record with 15 consecutive wins a couple of days ago. While they weren’t able to make history and set a new high-water mark, they do remain the winningest team in baseball since July 1 with a 16-2 record over this span. On Saturday, they continue this weekend series against the Toronto Blue Jays with first pitch set for 4:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for today’s Blue Jays vs. Red Sox game, courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox prediction, preview
Last year, the Blue Jays looked like a force to be reckoned with before coming up short in the World Series. This year, well, not so much. They’re 47-57 with a -63 run differential and one of the worst offenses in baseball, sitting dead last in the AL East at 47-57. They’re 2-6 coming out of the All-Star break, so things aren’t looking like they’ll turn around, either. The Red Sox, however, shook off a rough first couple months and have totally flipped the script on their season. They’re now 53-49 with a +47 differential, also going 7-1 heading out of the break. That now has them third in the division.
Yesterday, we saw Boston take a 6-4 win to start this home series. The Sox posted 12 hits with an impressive 4-for-5 outing with a homer and two RBI from Anthony Seigler helping power them to the win, also getting 4.2 shutout innings from Patrick Sandoval.
Today, there’s a matchup set between standout arms. The Blue Jays start RHP Dylan Cease (6-5), who has a 2.67 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over his 104.1 IP. The even more impressive part is his strikeout tally – with 155, he brings a 36.3% K% that ranks in the 99th percentile. He’s having one of the best years of his career, and the bullpen backing him ranks 11th in ERA at 3.86 with a 1.30 WHIP and a 14.1% K-BB%.
The Red Sox send out RHP Sonny Gray (12-1), a veteran who currently leads the AL in wins. He’s got a 2.48 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP and 90 strikeouts across 101.2 IP. The K% sits at a respectable 22.1% with a 6.9% BB%, also forcing ground balls at an above-average rate. The relief staff also sits second in ERA at 3.08 with a 1.16 WHIP and a 14.9% K-BB%.
As for the bats, there’s a big difference between these clubs. The Blue Jays are dead last in OPS this year at .680 as well as scoring with 3.93 runs per game. There are several reasons for that, but a .137 ISO that also ranks last and 103 home runs (fourth fewest) don’t help the output whatsoever, even despite ranking first in the sport with a 19.6% K% at the dish. Against right-handed pitching, they slash .250/.307/.388 for a .695 OPS.
On the opposite hand, the Red Sox have climbed up to 20th in OPS at .710 and sit at the same spot in runs per game with 4.24. The club brings a .150 ISO that falls 22nd and just 98 homers (second-to-last), and the plate approach is largely average. However, they’ve found their form lately with a .786 OPS and .190 ISO this month, good for fifth and seventh best in the MLB over that span. Granted, they also slash .241/.307/.381 for a .689 OPS on the year against right-handers.
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Red Sox as slim favorites on the Moneyline with -111 odds to win outright, though the Blue Jays are neck-and-neck with -108 odds themselves. The run total sits at just 7.5 here at Fenway..
I am slamming the under on this matchup, to put it lightly. Cease is one of the best arms in baseball, and while he allowed four earned runs in his April start against Boston this year, he then shut this same opponent out over 5.0 innings in his other chance back in June. He should land somewhere between those performances today, but I do think he’ll be closer to his ceiling than the floor simply due to the splits the Sox bring against right-handers. Gray is also very good at limiting scoring, and he faces the MLB’s lowest-output offense today while backed by an elite bullpen himself. Those factors are all more than enough to fade the over and target the under on 7.5 runs this afternoon.
