World Series contenders are set to clash in an interleague showdown this evening. The Yankees (58-45), despite an inept offense, earned a 1-0 victory on Friday night. New York will hope to keep the good times rolling this evening with lefty Ryan Weathers on the mound. As for the Phillies (56-48), they’ve turned their season around under interim manager Don Mattingly. Taking a series from the Yankees would give Philadelphia a major boost heading into August 3rd’s trade deadline. Who will come out on top in this marquee matchup?
The Yankees are favorites (-130) over the Phillies, with the over/under set at nine runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Saturday’s showdown between New York and Philadelphia on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Yankees vs. Phillies pick, best bet today
- Yankees ML (-130): Weathers is far from an ace, but he’s certainly capable of tossing a quality start. It helps that Philadelphia performs worse against opposing lefties. On the other side, rookie Keller will attempt to navigate a New York lineup loaded with left-handed hitters. The Yankees make sense tonight as road favorites.
Yankees vs. Phillies prediction, preview
As previously mentioned, it’ll be Weathers on the bump tonight at Citizens Bank Park. It’s been an up and down debut for the newest Yankees hurler. Despite a good stretch between April and May, the southpaw has been more erratic as the weather (no pun intended) has gotten warmer. Through 102.1 innings of work this season, he’s notched a 4.40 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 115 strikeouts (10.1 K/9). It’s fair to say that those numbers are in line with Weathers’ advanced metrics. He sits inside the 33rd percentile or worse in xERA (4.55), xBA (.256), average exit velocity (89.9 MPH), barrel rate (10.3%) and hard-hit rate (42.3%). However, the left-hander has done a stellar job at limiting free passes (2.6 BB/9).
For what it’s worth, Weathers has been slightly better on the road (4.23 ERA). He’ll look to boost those numbers against a power-laden Phillies lineup. Led by sluggers Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, the Fightins are tied for fifth in baseball with 135 home runs. However, this offense is a bit all or nothing this season. Philadelphia is just 24th in batting average (.235) and 30th in on-base percentage (.302). In addition, Weathers could present some unique problems tonight. The Phillies have a .683 OPS against left-handed pitching, ninth-worst in the majors. They’re also forcing just 2.90 walks per game, third-lowest in the league. That doesn’t inspire much confidence against a pitcher with stellar command.
As for the home team, it’s shaping up to be a bullpen day. No official starter has been announced as of Saturday morning, so it’s anyone’s guess who Don Mattingly will hand the ball to first. If we’re making an educated guess, Brian Keller fits the bill of an opener for Philadelphia. The 32-year-old was called up yesterday, but didn’t make his MLB debut during Friday’s contest. With ace Cristopher Sanchez slated to start on Sunday, this feels like the best time to get Keller involved in this weekend’s series. Over 36.1 innings of work with Triple-A Lehigh Valley, he’s notched a 2.23 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 38 strikeouts (9.4 K/9). Even if the rookie gets a quick hook, the Phillies own the league’s ninth-worst bullpen ERA (4.41).
Philadelphia’s young right-hander will face a stiff test on paper during tonight’s game. Granted, the Yankees haven’t looked like themselves at the plate with Aaron Judge (ribs) injured. Still, there’s plenty of big bats in this lineup that Keller will need to keep in check. The headliner is Ben Rice, in the midst of a breakout campaign. Over 98 games, the first baseman is slashing .274/.363/.584 with 30 home runs and 71 RBIs. Lefty batters such as Cody Bellinger (117 wRC+) and Jazz Chisholm (99 wRC+) could do some damage in this one as well.
Best Bet: Yankees ML (-130)
At the end of the day, neither of these lineups are living up to expectations this season. Keller is untested, going against a lineup filled with left-handed hitters. It’s not as if Philadelphia’s bullpen inspires much confidence either. On the other side, the Phillies have struggled against above-average southpaws this season. As modest favorites, back the Yankees tonight.
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