The Jacksonville Jaguars are off a terrific 13-4 regular season in 2025, but came up short once again in the playoffs, losing at home to the Buffalo Bills. The Jags ran the ball well last season, and should be in position to do so again in 2026. However, changes were made in the backfield, and I think that offers us a betting angle to capitalize on.
Bhayshul Tuten OVER/UNDER 699.5 Rushing Yards
A year after using the No. 1 overall pick on Trevor Lawrence to be the face of the franchise out of Clemson, Jacksonville used another first round pick on a Clemson Tiger the following season. Travis Etienne was the workhorse back for the Jags over the past four seasons, and was relatively successful for the majority of that span. But Etienne is now off to New Orleans to join Alvin Kamara in the Saints’ backfield this upcoming season.
Etienne eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards in three of his four seasons in Jacksonville, including 260 carries for 1,107 yards in 2025. That’s a lot of production to replace, and it appears the Jags are going to attempt to replace the bulk of it internally. Chris Rodriguez, who averaged a little more than 300 rushing yards per season during his three-year tenure as a backup in Washington, was brought in, ideally to play the same role. Rodriguez currently sits second on the RB depth chart in Jacksonville.
Atop the depth chart is Tuten — entering his second NFL season after the Jags selected him in the fourth round of the 2025 NFL Draft. Tuten was relatively successful mixing in during his rookie year, carrying 83 times for 307 rushing yards in 15 games. But with Etienne healthy enough to play in all 17 games, and producing, there just wasn’t much opportunity for the rookie.
Tuten only saw double digit rushing attempts once last season, turning 15 carries into 74 yards and a touchdown in a blowout win over the Chargers. Now his opportunity has arrived, and stat lines like that one should be the norm.
Tuten’s rushing yardage prop would require him to rush for 700 yards this season to cash the over. Jacksonville has had a running back top that number in seven straight seasons. I mentioned that Etienne topped 1,000 yards in three of his four seasons. In 2024 he was battling injuries and rushed for just 558 yards, but it was essentially a time share with Tank Bigsby that season. Etienne carried 150 times, while Bigsby rushed 168 times for 766 yards.
In 2021, James Robinson rushed for 767 yards, despite getting injured, and in 2020 he eclipsed 1,000 yards while playing in 14 games. Leonard Fournette began the streak back in 2019, when he rushed for 1,152 yards in 15 games. I think the recent production shows us that as long as Tuten is able to hold onto his job as RB1, 700 rushing yards in this offense is a low bar to clear.
If Tuten remains healthy for the entire season, he should fly by this number and flirt with 1,000 yards on the ground. But this number leaves us some wiggle room for injury as well. Etienne averaged 65 rushing yards per game in 2025, and if Tuten can match that production, he’d need 11 games to get over 700 yards.
It would take a serious injury in the first half of the season, or Tuten completely falling on his face and losing the job to Rodriguez for him not to cash the over on this prop in 2026. I’m willing to bet against either of those things happening.
NFL Pick: Tuten OVER 699.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
