The Las Vegas Raiders used the No. 1 overall pick in April’s NFL Draft to select what they hope will be their franchise quarterback. Fernando Mendoza is off a dream season at Indiana, going undefeated, en route to a National Championship and Heisman Trophy. While the Raiders obviously think highly of Mendoza, they’ll also look to protect their investment and make sure he’s ready for the NFL before putting him on the field. It makes for an interesting debate on Mendoza’s season-long player props, which we’ll breakdown below.
Fernando Mendoza OVER/UNDER 2399.5 Passing Yards
If you’re considering betting on Mendoza’s season-long player props this season, the handicap is much less about what you think of him as a player, and much more about if/when you think he’ll become the starter. In some ways, the handicap is actually more about what you think of Kirk Cousins as a player at this stage of his career.
After some prime seasons in Minnesota, Cousins appeared in 24 games for the Falcons over the last two seasons. His time in Atlanta did not go well, and now Cousins is about to turn 38 years old before the 2026 NFL season kicks off. Cousins was essentially put in place to mentor Mendoza, and almost certainly begin the season as the starting quarterback while the rookie learns the ropes.
Sure, there will be a QB battle in camp, but all reports out of Vegas indicate that the Raiders would much prefer to follow the plan of starting the season with Cousins under center. Which begs the question — when do they make the switch to Mendoza?
The first place to look in these situations is for the bye week, which gives teams extra time within the season to prep the young quarterback to takeover the starting job. However, in the case of the Raiders, the bye week doesn’t come until Week 13. That’s probably later than most of us think this move will be made, but you never know.
Cousins gets a friendly matchup in Week 1 to get off to a good start with his new team. The Raiders are home favorites to the lowly Dolphins, and if Cousins looks good, that would potentially give him a longer leash. The schedule gets difficult quickly, though — three of the next four games are on the road, and the home game is against the Chiefs. After that, Vegas hosts the Bills and Rams, before things finally ease up with a road game against the Jets.
While a matchup against the Jets, who somehow failed to even register an interception on defense last season, would make sense to ease a QB in, I’d also be surprised if Mendoza’s first start wasn’t a home game. The schedule doesn’t really offer a good guess as to when this switch could be made, so a lot of it will likely come down to how Cousins plays (and how Mendoza progresses behind closed doors).
So let’s just look at some numbers of comparable quarterbacks and their season-long passing yardage props. Last year’s No. 1 overall pick, Cam Ward of the Titans, is set at 3299.5. Bryce Young of the Panthers is set at 3074.5, while Jaxson Dart is 3150.5. Those are all confirmed starters for Week 1, baring anything crazy.
Then there’s Mendoza, who is set at 2399.5. That’s the lowest on the board by a wide margin — Malik Willis of the Dolphins is set at just 2949.5, despite being listed as the starter. I like using last year’s No. 1 overall pick as the baseline to go up against Mendoza, so let’s start there.
Mendoza’s season-long passing yardage prop is 72.7% of Cam Ward’s. So while these are ballpark estimates, it seems like this is priced for Cousins to start four or five games, before turning things over to Mendoza for 12-plus games. I’m of the mindset that it’s going to take longer for us to see Mendoza take over full time, which has me on the UNDER 2399.5 passing yards.
But I also feel there’s some wiggle room to be wrong about when Mendoza takes over, and still cash the under. This Las Vegas passing attack is not exactly dangerous at the moment, which I believe is part of the reason the team does not want to throw Mendoza into the fire right away.
Geno Smith made 15 starts for the Raiders last season, throwing for just 3,025 yards. That’s barely good for 200 yards per game. Mendoza would need to average 200 passing yards per game to crack the over here, if he were indeed to play in 12 games.
Bettors at DraftKings Sports seem to agree with the angle in the early going of this market. As of July 21, 62% of the bets have come in on the under, accounting for 83% of the handle.
Generally speaking, when we are offered a season-long player prop on a rookie that is expected to ease into a starting role over the course of the season, I’m drawn to the under. Life in the NFL is tough, and takes time to adjust. This situation, even with a quarterback taken No. 1 overall that looks the part, is no different.
