Milwaukee Brewers ace Jacob Misiorowski resumes his Cy Young campaign on Monday night, making his first start of the second half against the New York Mets at American Family Field.
“The Miz” has been untouchable in his second season with the NL Central-best Brewers (62–37), who are fresh off a sweep of the surging Marlins. The right-handed fireballer will look to keep the momentum rolling against the lowly Mets (42–58), who anchor the NL East with one of the worst records in baseball.
First pitch is at 7:40 p.m. ET. Milwaukee enters as a 1.5-run home favorite with -219 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Mets are +178 underdogs, with the game total set at O/U 7.5 runs.
Let’s dive into the top Jacob Misiorowski prop bet for Monday’s series opener.
Best Jacob Misiorowski Prop Bet for Mets vs. Brewers
Best Bet: Jacob Misiorowski Under 8.5 Strikeouts (-134)
If Jacob Misiorowski’s 1.62 ERA from the first half of 2026 holds, it would trail only 1994 Greg Maddux (1.56) and 1985 Dwight Gooden (1.53) for the best mark over the last 50 years. Simply put, “The Miz” is awesome — and, if the season ended today, a shoo-in for the National League Cy Young.
At just 24, the right-handed phenom paces the majors in virtually every statistical category, including but not limited to ERA, xERA (2.06), WHIP (0.76), FIP (2.06), and opponent batting average (.148). Armed with perhaps the most dominant fastball the game has ever seen, it’s no surprise that Misiorowski also leads the pack in strikeouts (167), strikeout rate (39.6 percent), and K’s per nine innings (13.54).
Misiorowski has recorded nine or more strikeouts in 10 of his 18 starts this season, hitting double digits in three of his last five outings. That includes a 15-strikeout “Maddux” — a complete-game shutout on fewer than 100 pitches — against the Phillies on June 12.
It feels blasphemous to bet on this dude’s “under” right now. However, Misiorowski was dealing with lingering fatigue heading into the All-Star break. Asked about his return to the rotation on Monday, Brewers manager Pat Murphy noted, “I think we have to build him back up and make sure we do it in a mindful way.”
Most likely on a pitch count, there’s a considerable restriction on the flamethrower’s strikeout ceiling.
Moreover, New York’s dormant offense has slowly started to come alive. Since the beginning of July, the Mets rank eighth in wRC+, 10th in wOBA, and seventh in xwOBA with the third-lowest strikeout rate (19.9 percent).
While those stats certainly don’t guarantee success against a generational talent, they forecast that the club will likely make Misiorowski work for every strikeout he gets. If the Brewers are being cautious with his output, he may struggle to record nine-plus K’s in Monday’s series opener.
