Tipping off as part of tonight’s four-game WNBA slate, the Las Vegas Aces will take on the Toronto Tempo. This is the first of three matchups between these two opponents this season.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Aces enter as 11.5-point favorites and hold -600 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Tempo hold +440 odds of pulling off the upset, with the game total set at 181.5 points.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Aces at Tempo matchup.
Aces at Tempo Preview
The Las Vegas Aces enter with a 17-7 record on the season, which ranks third in the WNBA. They are looking to bounce back from a 109-75 loss to the Indiana Fever in their last game, but they are 3-2 in the month of July. On the season, the Aces have gone 12-12 against the spread, and the game total is 12-12 to the over/under this season.
Four-time MVP A’ja Wilson headlines the production, averaging 25.5 points and 9.8 rebounds per night. Jackie Young adds 16.1 points and 6.6 assists, while Chelsea Gray contributes 12.3 points and 7.4 assists of her own. Chennedy Carter and NaLyssa Smith also average double digits, while Jewell Loyd also plays a key role. Kierstan Bell and Mai Yamamoto will each miss tonight’s matchup due to injury.
Becky Hammon’s squad is scoring 89.9 points per game, which ranks third in the WNBA. The Aces also rank fourth in offensive rating, first in field-goal percentage and fourth in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 85.9 points per game against Las Vegas, which ranks eighth in the league. Las Vegas also ranks sixth in defensive rating, fifth in opponent field-goal percentage and 13th in opponent three-point percentage.
The Toronto Tempo enter with a 10-15 record in their inaugural WNBA season. They are looking to bounce back from back-to-back losses to the Atlanta Dream and Washington Mystics, and they have dropped six of their past seven games. On the season overall, the Tempo have gone 13-12 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 16 of their 25 games played.
Injuries have been a major factor in Toronto’s recent struggles, and this remains the case tonight. Brittney Sykes remains sidelined with a left foot issue, forcing the Tempo to make up for her 20.1 points per game. Kiki Rice will also continue to miss time with her ankle injury, leaving the Tempo without their fourth-leading scorer at 12.7 points per game. Nyara Sabally is the lone other player set to miss tonight and is averaging 11.7 points per game on the season. Of the available bodies, Marina Mabrey will be asked to lead the scoring charge and add to her averages of 21.3 points, 3.6 assists and 3.4 rebounds per game. Isabelle Harrison adds 12.9 points and 6.1 rebounds of her own, while Laura Juskaite, Maria Conde and Julie Allemand also play notable roles.
As a team, the Tempo are scoring 88.7 points per game, which ranks sixth in the WNBA. Toronto also ranks seventh in offensive rating, seventh in field-goal percentage and third in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are averaging 92.3 points per game against the Tempo, ranking 14th in the WNBA. The Tempo also rank last in defensive rating, 13th in opponent field-goal percentage and fourth in opponent three-point percentage.
Aces at Tempo Pick, Best Bet
Injuries have become a major factor for the Tempo this season, and they are a better team at full strength than they have been able to show. But this isn’t an issue that will clear up tonight, and Toronto will need to continue to fight an uphill battle against one of the top teams in the WNBA. It has lost six of its last seven games straight up and only covered the spread in two of these matchups.
My lean is toward the Aces asserting themselves as the superior team and covering the significant 11.5-point spread. However, my best bet for this matchup is the game total to go over 181.5 points.
The Aces are one of the top offenses in the WNBA, ranking fourth in offensive rating and third in points per game at 89.9 on average. They have scored 100+ points in seven games already this season. This is especially noteworthy in this matchup, as the Tempo have struggled defensively this season. Toronto ranks dead last in defensive rating, and 14th in opponent points allowed at 92.3 points per game. It gave up 111 points to the Atlanta Dream in its previous game and has conceded 100+ points in seven matchups this year. Expect this to be the driving force of the scoring production and for Las Vegas to have no trouble pushing the scoring level at a high rate, with 100+ points plenty within reach.
However, the Tempo are capable of scoring at a high rate themselves. Toronto is averaging 88.7 points per game, which ranks sixth in the league, and also ranks fifth in pace and seventh in offensive rating. The Tempo have scored as many as 125 points in a game this season, and the Aces have a mediocre defense that ranks eighth in opponent points per game at 85.9 on average. Even with injuries being a factor, they have scored 92+ points in three of their last four games, and Marina Mabrey has done a nice job as the leading scoring option.
The game total has gone over in 16 of the 25 Tempo games this season, including 10 of their past 14 games played. The over has cashed in four of the past seven games for the Aces. Buckle up for plenty of scoring in both directions and for the 181.5-point game total to be too low based on the context of this matchup.
