Tipping off as a part of tonight’s three-game WNBA slate, the Portland Fire will face off with the Minnesota Lynx.
This is the second matchup between these two teams this season. They first faced off on June 15th, resulting in a blowout 107-74 victory by the Minnesota Lynx.
Looking at the odds for tonight’s matchup, the Lynx enter as 12.5-point favorites and hold -750 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Fire hold +525 odds of winning outright, with the game total set at O/U 173.5 points.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Fire at Lynx matchup.
Fire at Lynx Preview
The Portland Fire enter with an 11-14 record on the season, which slots them at ninth place in the WNBA. They enter this matchup coming off a victory over the Washington Mystics in their previous game, and they have won three of their last five games. This season, the Fire are 12-13 to the spread, and the game total has gone over in 14 of 25 games.
Carla Leite headlines the production, posting averages of 15.2 points and 5.8 assists per game, while Bridget Carleton adds 13.2 points and 3.6 rebounds. Megan Gustafson contributes 12.2 points per game, but will miss today’s matchup for personal reasons. Sania Feagin and Holly Winterburn will also be sidelined, while Karlie Samuelson is considered doubtful with a left middle finger injury. Sug Sutton and Sarah Ashlee Barker also average in double figures, while Emily Engstler and Luisa Geiselsoder also play notable roles for Portland.
The Fire are scoring 84.6 points per game this season, which ranks 10th among WNBA teams. They also rank 10th in offensive rating, eighth in field goal percentage, and seventh in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 89.8 points per game against Portland, which ranks 13th. The Fire also ranks 13th in defensive rating, ninth in opponents’ field goal percentage, and seventh in opponents’ three-point percentage.
The Minnesota Lynx enter with a league-best 19-6 record on the season. They enter this matchup looking to extend a four-game winning streak and have won 17 of their last 21. On the season overall, Minnesota has gone a WNBA-best 16-9 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 15 of their 25 games played.
Napheesa Collier remains sidelined as she recovers from her offseason ankle surgeries, and Emma Cechova joins her on the sidelines tonight due to a right knee issue. Second overall pick Olivia Miles has found her form, leading the team with 19.3 points, 5.7 assists and 4.7 rebounds per game. Kayla McBride adds 17.3 points and 3.8 rebounds, while Natasha Howard contributes16.5 points and a team-high 8.0 rebounds. Courtney Williams is the lone other player to average in double figures with 15.6 points per game, along with 5.6 rebounds and 4.0 assists, while Nia Coffey and Maya Caldwell also play significant roles.
The Lynx rank second in the WNBA in scoring at 90.8 points per game. Minnesota also ranks second in offensive rating, second in field-goal percentage, and first in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are averaging 81.9 points per game against the Lynx, the second-lowest rate in the league. They also rank second in defensive rating, first in opponent field-goal percentage, and fourth in opponent three-point percentage.
Fire at Lynx Pick, Best Bet
Even with five-time All-Star Napheesa Collier sidelined due to injury, the Minnesota Lynx have not missed a beat this season. They have looked like the top team in the WNBA from just about wire-to-wire and still have room to grow.
During the first matchup between these two teams, the Lynx cruised to a 107-74 victory. Minnesota extended a lead to as many as 35 and held control for 94% of the matchup. The Lynx dominated on the glass, winning the rebounding battle 40-27 and outscoring the Fire 60-36 in the paint. They also generated 27 fast-break points and forced Portland to turn the ball over 23 times. All five Minnesota starters and two bench players scored 11+ points, while not a single member of the Fire scored more than 10.
2.5 points is a significant spread, but this is not unfamiliar territory for this Lynx team. There have been seven games they have played as double-digit favorites, and Minnesota has covered three of these matchups. The Lynx are 16-9 against the spread overall and 11-9 as a favorite.
The biggest concern in this matchup will be the battle on the glass. Minnesota took control of the game by dominating in this area in the first matchup, and this was not an outlier for either side. Portland ranks dead last in rebounds per game, pulling in just 29.5 boards. The Fire also ranks 11th in opponents’ rebounds allowed and gives up the second-most offensive rebounds. This is especially a problem against the Lynx, who rank second in rebounds per game, fourth in offensive rebounds, and sixth in opponents’ rebounds allowed. With this being the pathway to production, it also takes away some of the variance that comes with perimeter shooting. Minnesota will attack the glass at a high rate again today, and this will create a clear path to another win.
The Lynx have won 14 consecutive games against Western Conference opponents with a losing record. They also have covered the spread in eight of their 10 games against Western Conference opponents with a losing record, and Minnesota has the best point differential in the WNBA at +8.9. While the Lynx have looked a bit vulnerable in recent games, this is a nightmare matchup for the Fire and a perfect get-right spot for Minnesota. Expect the Lynx to dominate the rebounding battle and for them to create plenty of second-chance opportunities to gradually grow their lead and cover the 12.5-point spread for the second time this season against the Fire.
