Tipping off as part of the four-game Friday night WNBA slate, the Los Angeles Sparks will take on the Chicago Sky.
This is the second matchup between these two sides, with the first occurring exactly one week ago. The Sparks cruised to a 102-87 win in this matchup, but the two sides will now travel to Chicago for tonight’s matchup as the Sky attempt to defend their home court.
Looking at the odds, the Sky enter as narrow 1.5-point favorites and hold -130 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Sparks are +110 underdogs, with the game total set at 182.5 points.
Let’s dive into a preview, prediction and pick for this Sparks at Sky matchup.
Sparks at Sky Preview
The Los Angeles Sparks enter with a 10-13 record on the season. They are coming off back-to-back losses, with their last victory coming against this Sky team. Los Angeles has lost seven of their last 10 matchups. On the season overall, the Sparks have gone 10-13 against the spread, while the game total has gone over a WNBA-leading 17 times in their 23 games played.
Kelsey Plum headlines the production for the Sparks, posting averages of 23.9 points and 6.4 assists per game on the season, but remains sidelined due to a left lower-leg injury. Kiana Williams is the lone other player on the injury report and is considered probable with a right-hand injury. Nneka Ogwumike will be looked to lead the production and add to her averages of 17.3 points and 8.8 rebounds per game. Dearica Hamby adds 14.4 points and 7.6 rebounds of her own, while Rae Burrell is the lone other player to average in double figures with 13.0 points per game. Ariel Atkins and Erica Wheeler also play important roles.
The Sparks are scoring 89.1 points per game as a team, which ranks fifth in the WNBA. Los Angeles also ranks ninth in offensive rating, fifth in field-goal percentage and 11th in three-point percentage. Opponents are scoring a WNBA-high 93.7 points per game against Los Angeles. The Sparks also rank 14th in defensive rating, 14th in opponent field-goal percentage and ninth in opponent three-point percentage while allowing the second-most perimeter shots per game.
The Chicago Sky hold an 8-16 record on the season, which is good for the fourth-worst winning percentage in the WNBA. They are coming off a victory over the Seattle Storm in the previous game, but have lost four of their past six matchups overall. On the season, the Sky have gone 12-12 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 16 of their 24 games played.
Injuries have been a factor for the Sky this season. Rickea Jackson is out for the season due to an ACL tear, Skylar Diggins will remain sidelined matchup with a knee injury, and DiJonai Carrington will also continue to miss time due to a foot issue. Of the available players, Kamilla Cardoso headlines the production with 14.3 points and 8.6 rebounds per game. However, Cardoso also joins the injury report and is considered questionable due to a right knee issue. Sydney Taylor adds 13.9 points, while Azura Stevens is also averaging in double figures at 11.4 points and 6.4 rebounds per game. Chloe Bibby opened some eyes with 14 points and four assists in her Sky debut, while Natasha Cloud and Jacy Sheldon will also be asked to play notable roles.
The Sky are scoring 86.8 points per game, which ranks ninth in the WNBA. Chicago also ranks 12th in offensive rating, 10th in field goal percentage, and 12th in three-point percentage. Opponents are scoring 89.7 points per game against the Sky, which ranks 12th in the WNBA. They also rank 11th in defensive rating, seventh in opponents’ field goal percentage, and second in opponents’ three-point percentage.
Sparks at Sky Pick, Best Bet
Injuries have been a key factor in why neither of these teams has reached their desired heights this season. But these problems will not be fixed ahead of this matchup, as neither team will enter at close to 100% strength and will be missing some of their top talents.
In the first matchup between these two sides, the Sparks cruised to a 102-87 win. Los Angeles led for 79% of the matchup and shot an impressive 14-for-31 (45%) on three-point attempts. All five Sparks starters scored 15+ points, while scoring was not easy to come by across the board for the Sky.
My lean is toward this matchup playing out a similar way and the Sparks pulling off the narrow upset. But the defensive issues on each of these teams should be the biggest takeaway, and I am backing the game total to go over the 182.5 line.
The total finished at 189 in the previous matchup, and overs have been a cash cow for each team this season. Los Angeles has seen the game total go over at a 73.9% rate this year. This includes the game total going over in six of the seven games they have been an away underdog, going 9-2 to the over as the away team overall, and 11-3 to the over when they are underdogs. Chicago is second in the league in the rate of overs, with the game total eclipsing the line in 66.7% of their games played. This includes all five games they have been home favorites, 7-1 when they are a favorite overall, and 8-3 when they are the home team.
Kamilla Cardoso’s injury will be one to monitor as the day goes on, as Chicago needs her interior protection and rebounding to provide any form of legitimate resistance. But Cardoso alone has not been enough to limit monstrous offensive outputs against the Sky, and the Sparks are capable of putting up points at a high rate even with their injuries in mind. Expect both teams to have clear paths to scoring the basketball and for each defense to lose the battle on its respective side of the floor. 182.5 is a high total based on WNBA standards, but rightfully so given the context of this matchup. Count on both sides putting up 90+ points and for the game total to soar past this number, in which there should be some expected sloppy defensive efforts throughout.
