38 days after the World Cup kicked off, the pinnacle of the sport is finally here. 48 teams arrived in North America, and only Argentina and Spain remain. Sunday’s 3 p.m. ET final at New York/New Jersey Stadium will be a 90-minute (or, perhaps, 120-minute) battle of attrition that only the deepest, most gritty, most tactically sound teams are capable of handling.
The Albiceleste, of course, have been here before. They made it in 2014, losing the final to Germany in heartbreaking fashion when Mario Götze etched his name into the history books in the 114th minute. They made it again in 2022, exorcising their demons and filling Lusail Stadium in Doha with their jubilation after Gonzalo Montiel hammered home the final penalty. La Roja will present the toughest test that Argentina has faced, but Lionel Messi’s team is nothing but not resilient.
Spain is no stranger to big moments, either. La Roja won the World Cup in 2010 behind a completely different generation of superstars, with Iker Casillas and Andrés Iniesta cementing their legacies, and this promising generation of Spanish talent has already produced a 2024 Euros title.
In this clash of worthy champions, only one will permanently grace the legacy of this tournament and the other will go home in disappointment.
Spain is a +130 favorite to win in regular time (-160 to win the World Cup) at DraftKings Sportsbook, and the Albiceleste are +255 (+125 to lift the trophy). There are +195 odds that, for the fifth time in the last six editions, the final will require extra time.
Below, I’ll break down the most-anticipated match of the year and provide my favorite bet.
Spain vs. Argentina Best Bet:
- Spain Moneyline (+130): Argentina’s defense has been shaky at times, conceding goals in each of its last five matches, and that simply won’t cut it against a team as precise and disciplined as Spain. The Albiceleste have relied on crunch-time magic to survive each of the past four rounds, but La Roja have been plenty clutch themselves.
Spain vs. Argentina prediction, pick
La Roja have earned their status as the favorites by dominating throughout the competition. Though they looked shaky in the group stage at times, drawing with Cape Verde and only topping Uruguay thanks to a Fernando Muslera howler, they have been much more convincing in the knockouts, suffocating Austria and France and looking in control before finding late winners to oust Portugal and Belgium. Argentina, on the other hand, romped its way through the group stage but has scored nine of its 11 knockout stage goals after the 75th minute. The Albiceleste were tested by the Blue Sharks and Switzerland and fell behind against Egypt and England, but their late heroics have become a trend, not a fluke. Both of these teams are so deep and well-conditioned that it’s truly never over until final whistle sounds.
Spain has won through its defense. No winning team has ever allowed fewer than two goals throughout the tournament, but so far, La Roja have only allowed one. In fact, they’ve only allowed 2.15 expected goals’ worth of chances in seven games, and Unai Simón has only faced 10 shots on goal. Their high press has also forced the fifth-most high turnovers. Pau Cubarsí could be the Young Player of the Tournament, and wing-backs Marc Cucurella and Pedro Porro have been dominant on both ends. 2024 Ballon d’Or winner Rodri looks back to full health after an ACL tear that limited him for most of the 2024-25 season, controlling the pace against Les Bleus in the semifinals and ranking 34th in tackles per 90 minutes despite Spain’s dominating possession. Further forward, La Roja have paired their defense with a far stronger attack than the 2010 team’s; Pedri, Álex Baena, Dani Olmo, Lamine Yamal, and Ferrán Torres all rank in the top 40 in expected assists per 90 minutes for a team that’s completed passes at the fourth-highest rate and managed chances worth the eighth-most expected goals per match. Mikel Oyarzabal has been inconsistent from match-to-match, but only truly world-class superstars (Messi, Kylian Mbappé, Erling Haaland, Harry Kane, and Jude Bellingham) have scored more than his five goals. Mikel Merino and Nico Williams provide depth and big-match experience off the bench.
While Spain’s philosophy can be best defined by its egalitarian nature, Argentina’s centers heavily around Messi’s magical left foot. He provided the assist on both of the goals in the comeback against the Three Lions, scored one and assisted one against the Pharaohs, and was involved in all three goals against Cape Verde. He leads the Golden Boot race with eight goals and four assists, and he’s the fulcrum of an attack that has completed passes at the highest rate and produced chances worth the sixth-most expected goals per match. To boot, the Albiceleste have been more efficient with their chances than La Roja have, ranking sixth in conversion rate and eighth in goals minus expected goals per match. On paper, Argentina also has the second-best defense in the tournament, allowing the second-fewest expected goals per match and ranking fourth in tackles per match despite dominating possession, but wing-backs Nicolás Tagliafico and Nahuel Molina have looked vulnerable and slow at times. The Albiceleste have been pretty poor at forcing high turnovers. Center-backs Cristian Romero and Lisandro Martínez have been more sturdy while also contributing in the attack, and Emiliano Martínez has a better pedigree than Simón as a two-time Yashin Trophy winner, but they’ve conceded in five straight matches regardless.
In the end, winning this final will require perfection. Both teams have been strong at capitalizing on mistakes, with Argentina averaging the most fast-break goals and La Roja ranking 13th by both high turnovers ending in shots and goals. While both of these teams have played cleanly, Spain has been slightly better, making two fewer errors leading to a shot than the Albiceleste have. La Roja have also committed fewer fouls and have been slightly better at playing the offsides trap, a critical factor in a match between two through-ball reliant teams. I also trust Yamal, Baena, Cucurella, and Porro so much more on the wings than I do Julián Álvarez, Giuliano Simeone, Tagliafico, and Molina, especially given Tagliafico’s age. Of course, there are the intangibles; Argentina’s veteran leadership and experience allows it to hold its nerve, but given that it won the Euros and hasn’t lost in regular time since March 2024, it’s hard to imagine Spain losing all of its defensive discipline like England did. La Roja will do just enough to overcome Messi at the final hurdle.
Best Bet: Spain Moneyline (+130)
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