Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top two home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for the evening-half of Thursday’s slate: Fernando Tatis Jr. and Dominic Canzone.
Let’s break them down.
Best MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Dominic Canzone | +446 | Canzone ranks in the 95th percentile of expected slugging rate (.526) and the 94th percentile of barrel rate (15.8%). He’s already set a new career-high with 14 long balls. Meanwhile, lefties are slashing .329/.366/.523 off Janson Junk in 2026. |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | +337 | In 31 career at-bats, Tatis has hit four homers off Kelly with a 1.186 OPS — and that was when Kelly wasn’t the worst pitcher in the league. Now, the RHP is sitting in the first percentile of xERA (7.78), opponent expected batting average (.311) and opponent barrel rate (14.5%). He’s also giving up 1.97 opponent long balls per nine. |
In-depth analysis below.
Top MLB Home Run Props Today
Dominic Canzone 1+ Home Run (+446)
We’re hunting for a left-handed Mariners bat in this matchup against Janson Junk. Now, that does mean you could test your luck with Cal Raleigh (+305), who has been showing some signs of life over the past week, but instead, I think I’ll highlight Canzone. The 28-year-old is a one-trick pony. He’s a primary platoon DH. In today game, where versatility and athleticism is prioritized, you’d better be tearing the cover off the ball if you fit that archetype. Fortunately for Seattle, that’s exactly what Canzone has been doing in 2026. The former Diamondback enters Thursday ranking in the 95th percentile of expected slugging rate (.526) and the 94th percentile of barrel rate (15.8%). He’s only had 241 plate appearances this season, yet he’s already set a new career-high with 14 long balls. Meanwhile, the aforementioned Junk is coming off the IL to make this start, and he’s struggled with LHBs all year long. Lefties are slashing .329/.366/.523 off the Marlins’ RHP.
Fernando Tatis Jr. 1+ Home Run (+337)
I know. For anyone that’s followed his season, seeing Tatis Jr. listed in a home run props articles might be a little jarring. Still, Tatis does have five long balls since hitting his first of the year on May 30, and he’s in possession of a 95th percentile hard hit rate for 2026 as a whole (52.7%). It’s not like all his talent has suddenly disappeared into thin air. This pick also really isn’t about him — it’s about Merrill Kelly. The veteran RHP has been the worst pitcher in baseball who has remained in his team’s rotation. Don’t believe me? How about Kelly sitting in the first percentile of xERA (7.78), opponent expected batting average (.311) and opponent barrel rate (14.5%)? How about the fact he’s surrendering 1.97 long balls per nine? These two have history, too. In 31 career at-bats, Tatis has hit four homers off Kelly with a 1.186 OPS. All of those were off a much-better version of the 37-year-old. Imagine what he can do now.
