With the second half of the WNBA season getting underway, the results start to feel heavier. The defending champion Las Vegas Aces are battling for the top overall seed in the league, while the Portland Fire fight to stay in the playoff mix in their inaugural season. Will Portland be able to scrap its way to the upset? Or will the Aces storm into the Moda Center to snatch another victory?
Tipoff is set for 10 p.m. ET. The Aces are 8.5-point road favorites with -410 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. A Fire upset is priced at +320 with the game total set at O/U 174.5 points.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Aces-Fire game.
Aces vs. Fire Preview
It has been a strange few days for the Aces. The roster cutdown day was this week, when all teams had to decide on their non-guaranteed contracts for the rest of the season. Las Vegas made the biggest headlines by cutting Chennedy Carter, a frontrunner for the Sixth Player of the Year award. Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Carter’s personality (and immense defensive struggles) overrode her talent, and despite averaging 12.2 points per game on 60/52/76 shooting splits, Carter finds herself looking for a job. If Becky Hammon hits a wall trying to coach you up, it might be the end of the line.
In a corresponding move, Vegas signed Justine Pissott, a second-round pick by the Fever who has yet to debut. At 6-foot-4, Pissott brings interesting size to their wing room and shot 38.6% from three across four seasons in college. If Pissott can bring some rebounding, defense, and floor spacing to the Aces, it may boost the outlook for Jewell Loyd, who is struggling mightily off their bench. Getting some minutes alongside A’ja Wilson, Jackie Young, and Chelsea Gray certainly wouldn’t hurt either.
At the quarter pole of the season, the Portland Fire were feeling awfully good about things. At 6-4, they had surprised a few teams and looked competitive enough to be the newest expansion team to make the playoffs. But then the wheels came off. Portland lost 8 of its next 10 games, putting them well under .500 and outside of the playoff picture. With the second half underway, they have a chance to regain their momentum and have started well with a victory over the Seattle Storm. But now they face a different kind of test.
Plain and simple, Portland has to figure out a way to defend. They allowed 105 points to the Aces in their first matchup and allowed 100+ points in three straight games before picking up a low-scoring win over the Storm. They might get lucky, as Wilson is questionable with a lingering leg injury and could be ruled out. But even if they get a reprieve from the M’VP, they’ll have their hands full trying to handle the Gray and Young backcourt.
So much rests on Carla Leite here. One of their priority expansion picks in the offseason, Leite looks like a true floor general for the expansion Fire. Her passing has taken a huge leap, and the 22-year-old continues to push the tempo for Portland. It’s a lot to rely on such a young player to take command of the offense. Still, veterans like Bridget Carleton and Megan Gustafson respect the pecking order. If Leite can raise the floor of the offense while holding up defensively against Young and Gray, they’ve got a shot.
Aces vs. Fire Pick, Best Bet
Even with Wilson’s status in doubt, I’m not a believer in the Fire here. They have struggled to defend in rotation all season long, and I expect those struggles to continue against a machine-like Aces offense. There’s no reprieve when these vets are firing the ball around, turning good shots into great shots. This should be an offensive clinic for Las Vegas.
