The Mystics are hosting the Valkyries on Monday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Golden State is favored by 6.5 points and this game carries a total of 155.5 points.
Let’s get into my pick and prediction for this contest.
Mystics vs. Valkyries Preview
The Mystics are 10-9 and rank 11th in net rating this season, but they have been playing better lately, winning three of their last five. Washington defeated the top-seeded Lynx on their home floor to begin this stretch and is coming off a win over the Dream on Thursday, 81-76.
Washington was able to get this victory despite top scorer Sonia Citron being out with a sore knee. The guard is leading the Mystics with 18.6 PPG this season and is questionable to play tonight. Shakira Austin led the way with 22 points on 9-of-14 shooting with Citron inactive and should see another expanded role if Citron is sidelined again.
While the Mystics were able to get it done vs. the Dream with Citron out, the Valkyries are a greater challenge, having won four straight games. Despite the win over the Dream, the Mystics’ net rating is still an ugly -13.7 with Citron off the floor this season so they could have major issues scoring the ball vs. this Golden State defense that ranks second in rating this season. However, the Mystics are right behind the Valkyries in that category, ranking third in defensive rating, and if this game becomes a low scoring defensive battle, Washington could put up a fight, with or without Citron.
During this four-game winning streak for the Valkyries, they have beaten the Liberty once and the Dream three times, most recently with an 88-83 win over Atlanta this past Saturday. Golden State is in the midst of a strong season, sitting at 14-7 and ranking third in net rating.
As just mentioned above, the Valkyries rank third in defensive rating, but they can be weak on the other side of the ball, ranking eighth in offensive rating, as the team struggles to find consistent offense from everyone besides Gabby Williams, who is leading Golden State with a career-high 16.0 PPG.
Reigning Most Improved Player of the Year Veronica Burton is on the heels of a 21-point performance vs. the Dream, but she had scored single-digits in four of her previous five and she may come back down to earth vs. the Mystics’ stout defense. Another concern for the Valkyries is that this game is in Washington, as Golden State has been an average team on the road this season with a 4-4 record. Although, Washington owns the same 4-4 record on it’s home floor, so it’s not like the Valkyries are heading into hostile territory.
Mystics vs. Valkyries Pick, Best Bet
While the Valkyries have had issues on the road this season, they are the far better team in this matchup and they should come out of Washington with a win.
Golden State’s defense should lead the club to a victory and I expect the Mystics to have a weak offensive showing in this spot, especially if Citron sits again, making Washington for under it’s team total of 74.5 points my top bet for this contest. The Mystics rank second-to-last in offensive rating and their offensive rating is 8.3 points per 100 possessions worse with Citron off the court than with her on.
