The Mercury are hosting the Storm on Thursday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Phoenix is favored by 3.5 points and this game carries a total of 168.5 points.
Let’s get into my pick and prediction for this contest.
Mercury vs. Storm Preview
It hasn’t been a great season for this Mercury team that went to the WNBA Finals last year. Phoenix is 7-13 and ranks ninth in net rating. The team is bottom-six in both offensive and defensive rating, but the Mercury have shown some signs of life recently, winning three of their last five.
During this run, the Mercury cruised to an easy win over the Storm, winning 93-73 on June 20th, making the Phoenix 2-0 vs. Seattle this season. The Mercury have been better on both sides of the ball and Valeriane Ayayi has really stepped up with Jovana Nogic (personal) out for the rest of the season and Natasha Mack (foot, out) sidelined.
Despite coming off the bench, Ayaji has scored 18, nine, 19 and 20 points in her last four with that 18-point showing coming in the blowout win over the Storm. Ayaji ranks second for the Mercury in plus/minus this season and she could move into Phoenix’s starting lineup soon. Nevertheless, starter or not, Ayaji should continue to see an expanded role tonight, as her scoring is huge for this team, to complement Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper.
While the Mercury are trending up right now, so are the Storm. Following an 11-game losing streak, Seattle has won back-to-back games on its home floor, defeating the Liberty, 99-88, and the Dream, 105-90. Both these clubs rank in the top-five in net rating this season. The Storm were big underdogs for both matchups, so these are very notable wins for this Seattle team that is 5-15 and ranks just 12th in net rating this season.
Natasha Hiedeman and Dominque Malonga both have been strong in these wins, but the difference has been rookie Flau’jae Johnson. The guard has scored 28 and 24 points in these matchups while shooting 57.1% from the field and 46.2% on three-pointers.
Johnson is leading the Storm with a 29.2% usage rate and 32.8 minutes per game during this win streak. She leads the team in plus/minus this season and they should continue to feed her a huge workload tonight. Johnson dramatically helps Seattle on both sides of the ball and while it has only been two games, the Storm have looked like an entirely different team with the rookie thriving in these past two.
The Mercury did just hold Johnson to 13 points two weeks ago in the 20-point home win for Phoenix, so it will be interesting to see if Johnson will stay hot or if the Mercury will bother her again on their home floor. Phoenix oddly has had issues at home this season with a 2-6 record, but the Storm similarly have struggled on the road with a 1-8 record.
Mercury vs. Storm Pick, Best Bet
Both these teams are playing much better recently, but the Mercury are 2-0 vs. the Storm this season and after winning back-to-back home games, Seattle could slow down a little with this game on the road.
Phoenix should win this game, but I do think this flourishing Storm team puts up a fight and they cover as 3.5-point underdogs. At home this season, the Mercury are just 2-6 ATS.
