The Mystics are hosting the Dream on Thursday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Atlanta is favored by 6.5 points and this game carries a total of 167.5 points.
Let’s get into my pick and prediction for this contest.
Mystics vs. Dream Preview
The Mystics are having another underwhelming season with a 9-9 record and ranking 11th in net rating. Washington’s defense has been strong, ranking third in rating, but its offense has been stagnant, ranking second-to-last in rating.
Although, the Mystics have shown some fight recently, winning three of their last five. They beat the Liberty on the road, 86-83, and the top-seeded Lynx on their home floor as well, 84-79. That latter win is definitely Washington’s best win of the season and the club is also coming off a quadruple overtime win over the Fire this past Sunday, 124-123.
Sonia Citron led the way with 32 points, Kiki Iriafen added 27 points and Michaela Onyenwere came out of nowhere with a career-high 30 points. The forward hadn’t scored more than five points in three straight before this, so this was a pleasant surprise. Onyenwere has been very hit-or-miss this season, however, so it’s difficult to expect anything close to a repeat performance vs. the Dream, who rank fifth in defensive rating. Unless, Citron sits, as she is questionable with knee soreness after logging a team-high 53 minutes in the barn burner vs. the Fire.
Citron has been the Mystics best player this season, averaging a team-high 18.6 PPG on 47.7% shooting. Washington giving her the night off wouldn’t be surprising and if Citron is out, Iriafen and Onyenwere are both going to see expanded roles, but the Mystics as a unit will suffer.
Washington did beat the Sky in the lone game Citron has missed this season, 90-72, but with her off the court this season, the Mystics’ net rating plummets to a terrible -18.2, so that win over Chicago feels very fluky in hindsight. If Citron plays, Washington will obviously be in a much better position to win, but the whole team might be a little drained after the quadruple overtime nail biter Sunday.
On the other side, Atlanta is 12-7, and the club ranks third in net rating. The Dream rank in the top-five in both offensive and defensive rating, but things have been rocky recently, as Atlanta has lost three straight games, all coming on the road. The Valkyries beat them twice in Golden State and then, the Storm defeated the Dream in Seattle, 105-90. The Valkyries rank second in net rating and are a great home team, so those losses don’t really raise an eyebrow, but the Storm are 5-15 and rank 12th in net rating, so that loss definitely was a surprise.
This marked Seattle’s second win in a row and the club is all of a sudden playing inspiring basketball with rookie Flau’jae Johnson flourishing, but losing by 15 points and trailing for the entire game to this Storm team doesn’t sit well, nonetheless. The Dream are led by Rhyne Howard, Angel Reese and Alisha Gray, and this trio all scored 15+ points vs. Seattle, most notably with 27 from Howard, but Atlanta’s defense was terrible, allowing Seattle’s weak offense to shoot 60.4% from the field.
Atlanta is now just 6-5 on the road and the club is the away team again tonight vs. the Mystics, but facing this worn down Washington team that could be without’s best player may be precisely what the doctor ordered for the Dream to get back on track.
Mystics vs. Dream Pick, Best Bet
Without word on Citron, it’s difficult to predict this tilt, but the Mystics should be drained with or without her and the Dream should bounce back with a win here.
Atlanta is just 4-7 ATS on the road, though, so Dream -6.5 feels risky. These clubs are both strong defensively, hence this game’s low 167.5-point total, but both sides have winning records for the over this season and this number is simply too low. The first matchup between the Dream and Mystics generated 186 points and going with the over tonight is the right move.
