The final game of this series gets going at 12:35 p.m. ET, which means there’s no time to drag out this intro.
Let’s simply preview this National League clash between the Pirates and the Phillies and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Pirates vs. Phillies prediction, preview
The Pirates could really use a win this afternoon to split this series. Things started well enough on Monday, when Pittsburgh blitzed Aaron Nola and eventually won 11-7. However, the past two days have not been pretty for Yinzers. The Pirates were shutout in an 8-0 loss on Tuesday, then dropped their eighth Paul Skenes start in a row on Wednesday — this time, it was Skenes’ fault, as he gave up seven earned runs.
On Thursday, the club will send Jared Jones to the bump, as he’ll make his sixth start since returning from internal brace surgery on his right elbow. Stuff has not been an issue for Jones in his re-introduction to the league. In fact, Jones is averaging 98.6 mph with his fastball and he’s exceeded 100 mph more than a handful of times. That said, the RHP comes into this outing with a 5.76 ERA across 25.0 innings of action. Jones isn’t being helped by an unusually low strand rate (65.5%), yet the main issue is his inability to keep the ball in the park. The 24-year-old is conceding 1.80 opponent home runs per nine and a 9.2% opponent barrel rate. That’s just not going to get it done.
Jones has also had his problems with left-handed bats, which could be a death sentence against a lineup like the Phillies’. The 63 LHBs that Jones has faced so far in 2026 have combined to slash .333/.387/.632 with a .434 wOBA. That’s not ideal on any day with the letter “Y” at the end of it, but it’s especially not ideal when the likes of Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and Brandon Marsh are staring you down from the batter’s box. Unsurprisingly, Philadelphia’s left-handed bats own a league-high .211 ISO off of right-handed pitching this season.
They might need the run support, too. Alan Rangel will likely pitch the majority of the Phillies’ innings in this contest, yet if recent history is any indication, he’ll probably do so behind an opener. The 28-year-old journeyman isn’t exactly known for his pedigree, or his raw stuff, but he’s been more effective than Andrew Painter in his first three appearances with the big club in 2026, maintaining a 2.97 xERA, thanks primarily to a 6.50 K/BB ratio. Still, it’s a small sample for Rangel, and this is a man who was rocking a 5.13 xERA over 70.0 innings in Triple-A. This house of cards could fall apart at any minute.
Pirates vs. Phillies pick, best bet
Best Bet: Kyle Schwarber 2+ Hits + Walks + Stolen Bases (-120)
Obviously it’s very funny to take a stolen bases bet for Schwarber, but this is way more about the walk element, as the Phillies’ leadoff man has drawn the 10th-most free passes of any player in the league (53). This prop covers you in the event that Jones pitches around the MLB’s leader in home runs (30).
