The No. 1 Purdue Boilermakers take on the No. 11 NC State Wolfpack in the Final Four at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. The matchup will take place on Saturday, April 6. Tip-off is scheduled for 6:09 p.m. ET, and the game will air on TBS.
2024 March Madness picks
No. 1 Purdue vs. No. 11 NC State best bet
Purdue defeated Tennessee in the Elite Eight to advance to the semifinals in Glendale, a far cry from their first round exit last season. Zach Edey scored a career-high 40 points against the Volunteers in the 72-66 win, and guard Fletcher Loyer added 14 points. The Boilermakers’ woes from 2023 are now far in the background as they head to the Final Four with their sights set on a title.
The Boilermakers had one of the best three-point shooting squads in the country this season, but they struggled to connect from the perimeter against Tennessee, making just 20% of their attempts — nowhere near their season average of 40.6%. Purdue averaged 83.5 points per game this season, ranking within the nation’s top 10 in scoring offenses. Thanks to Edey, they are also one of the best rebounding teams in the country.
But NC State might not be done yet. What was unimaginable for the Wolfpack just a few short weeks ago continues to come true time and time again, against all odds. Their nine straight wins have led them to an ACC tournament title, an NCAA Tournament berth, and now, to the program’s first Final Four appearance since 1983. The Wolfpack earned a 76-64 win over Duke in the Elite Eight, led by forward DJ Burns, who added a team-high 29 points.
Burns will need to be the Wolfpack’s response to Edey, which will be challenging. He will need to stay out of foul trouble and find ways to work around Purdue’s big man under the basket. If Burns can draw a few fouls down low from Edey and bench him for a few minutes, the Wolfpack will be able to take advantage of the mismatch, but that’s a big “if” for a player that shot 22 free throws in the Elite Eight.
The Wolfpack have out-rebounded most of their March opponents, but that won’t be an easy feat in this matchup. However, if they can limit Purdue from the three-point line, avoid getting in foul trouble, and focus on the mid-range, the Wolfpack should be able to keep it close. There is also some undeniable March magic on this NC State team — no one has been able to beat them in weeks.
Betting lines
Thursday odds
Spread: Purdue -9
Total: 146
Moneyline: Purdue -440, NC State +340
Opening odds
Spread: Purdue -9
Total: 147
Moneyline: Purdue -440, NC State +340
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best bet: NC State +9
The Wolfpack know what they’re getting into with Edey, and have their own big man in DJ Burns to go head-to-head against the seven-footer. While Purdue may end up pulling away at the end if Edey draws enough fouls, NC State has dealt with plenty of talented offenses in their March run, and have put together plenty of solid defensive performances. I think the Wolfpack can stay in this one, even if the Cinderella run comes to a close with the final buzzer.