Pocono is the Tricky Triangle: three corners that look easy and aren’t. Passing is hard, so qualifying and pit strategy decide who runs up front. Find the speed, find the winner.
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NASCAR Best Bets for the Great American Getaway 400
Race Winner — Denny Hamlin (+300)
This pick is a broken record, but this record is a hit single, and it’s breaking the book. Hamlin was the favorite and won the All-Star Race at Dover in the middle of May. Two weeks ago, he jumped the start at Nashville and was black-flagged. He recovered and won. Michigan was the same. Damage to the diffuser forced the pole sitter to forfeit his premium position. Hamlin drove through the field and won again.
Pocono is one of Hamlin’s best tracks. After a repave of the Tricky Triangle, Hamlin struggled for half a decade. After several Pennsylvania winters, the surface has worn. Hamlin’s superpowers have returned. He was the runner-up in 2025 and 2024 with over 30 laps led in each race. He won in 2023 and 2022, but failed post-race inspection in 2022. He also won at Pocono in 2019 and 2020, and earned top-5 finishes in 2020 (double-header) and 2021.
Race Winner — Chase Elliott (+1200)
Denny Hamlin can only beat himself. No one will beat Hamlin. After starting in the back and winning at Nashville and Michigan, it does not even seem like Hamlin can beat himself. If Hamlin makes a major mistake or the caution flag flies at the wrong time, who is going to steal the Pocono trophy?
Chase Elliott was the last driver to pickpocket Hamlin. Elliott was handed the 2022 Pocono win after the JGR Toyotas were DQ’d. Elliott has the second-best average finish at Pocono in the Gen 7 car — finishes of fifth, ninth, tenth and third. Hendrick Motorsports unloaded fast last week. They may have figured out the new Chevy body.
Race Winner — Kyle Larson (+650)
Top-10 bets are not a bad idea for Pocono. In a way, Pocono is Daytona-lite. Not every driver can win, but they can earn a top-10 finish at this hard-to-pass track. Pitting at the right time can lead to track position. From there, a driver turns circles or triangles, and hangs onto a top 10. The problem with that pick is that it isn’t data-driven. It’s random. It’s fluky. It’s hard to predict which small team will luck out.
Picking winners at Pocono is data-driven. Speed wins. Hamlin is fast. Larson has speed, too. Pocono is a good track for Larson, and the 2026 Hendrick Chevy has turned a corner. Larson was happy at Charlotte and Nashville. Last week, Larson was the second-fastest car on the track during the final run.
