The Mercury are hosting the Sparks on Thursday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Phoenix is favored by 2.5 points and this game carries a total of 177.5 points.
Let’s get into my pick and prediction for this contest.
Mercury vs. Sparks Preview
After losing to the Aces in the WNBA Finals, the Mercury lost Satou Sabally in free agency, as the New York native signed with the Liberty. Sabally led the Mercury with 16.3 PPG last season and she had some huge games in Phoenix’s run to the Finals. Losing Sabally obviously is a big deal, but the Mercury have been solid with her out of the picture this season, with a 2-3 record and ranking seventh in net rating.
Kahleah Copper and Alyssa Thomas have been strong, leading Phoenix with 17.8 and 16.6 PPG, respectively, and Serbian rookie Jovana Nogic has really helped fill the void left behind by Sabally, averaging 15.4 PPG and leading the team in plus/minus. Nogic is shooting 43.5% from the field and an outstanding 51.7% on three-pointers, which ranks third among all the players who have attempted at least 15 treys this season. The Mercury have scored at least 90 points in four of their five games and they rank fifth in offensive rating.
Phoenix’s offense now gets to face a Sparks’ team that ranks dead-last in defensive rating this season. Their offense hasn’t been great, either, ranking just eighth per 100 possessions. Los Angeles is 1-3 and the team ranks second-to-last in net rating, despite playing all of these games at home. Kelsey Plum has been a monster, leading the WNBA with 26.8 PPG. Additionally, Dearica Hamby and Nneka Ogwumike are averaging 17.0 and 16.5 PPG, respectively.
However, despite Hamby and Ogwumike’s contributions, the Sparks are very much a one-player show with Plum, making them predictable on offense, in addition to their terrible defense. It’s been a rough start for the Sparks, to say the least, and tonight will be just their first away game of the season. Los Angeles was 3-17 on the road last season and upsetting the Mercury in Phoenix tonight is going to be a real challenge.
Mercury vs. Sparks Pick, Best Bet
While the Mercury only have one more win than the Sparks, Phoenix has been the much better club. Copper, Thomas and Nogic all should thrive against Los Angeles’ soft defense and the Mercury should cover this small 2.5-point spread on their home floor.
