It hasn’t been the easiest run, but the Cavaliers will be visiting the Knicks tonight at 8:00 PM EST for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals after completing a grueling seven game series against the Pistons, of which they came out on top, obviously. The spectacle in the West last night during which the Spurs upset the Thunder on their home court in Game 1 behind a Victor Wembanyama masterclass might have overshadowed this series, but there’s still plenty of basketball left to be played.
James Harden has been good but not great. During the Cavaliers’ current playoff run, Harden is posting 20.1 PPG with 6.2 APG and 5.2 RPG in 14 games. He’s posting .415/.333/.835 shooting splits with a 58.5% TS. It hasn’t been efficient for Harden, but the playoffs can get ugly, and Harden’s been able to find other ways to contribute besides his individual scoring. Long gone are his days of consistently dropping 30 points in the postseason, even if he is occasionally capable of posting big scoring nights, as evidenced by his lone 30 point game against the Pistons in an OT win during which he shot 8/21.
Here are some of the best James Harden prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for tonight’s matchup:
Best James Harden Prop Bets
Under 18.5 Points (-103):
New York’s defense is built to take away Harden’s most comfortable scoring routes, which include stepback threes and floaters around the rim. His recent road scoring profile already makes us a bit skeptical about his individual offensive output tonight.
On the road, Harden’s already posted multiple low-scoring games, including 16, 19, and 18 in Toronto as well as a 10 point dud in Detroit for Game 2. Now he’s walking into MSG against a perimeter trio that’s capable of staying attached to Harden while staying mindful about Harden’s sly foul-baiting tactics, with their physicality making it tougher for Harden to create separation. Harden is averaging 18.1 PPG across his last 15 road playoff games, which also falls under the line tonight. As long as New York can keep Harden from getting into a rhythm with threes and force him into crowded shots against a set defense, I’m expecting Harden to fall under this range once again tonight.
Under 6.5 Assists (-110):
Harden is averaging only 6.2 APG in the playoffs, which is a tangible drop off from his regular season 7.7 APG on this team. The Knicks are one of the better teams at limiting assists, allowing just 24.7 opponent APG (5th fewest), which usually reflects a defense that stays connected to shooters and doesn’t over-rotate into kickout passing lanes. Their personnel fits this plan, with the aforementioned Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby able to pressure without constant help, and Josh Hart cleaning up mistakes. Harden should see fewer possessions that inflate assist totals given how fluid I’m expecting New York’s defense to be tonight in dealing with a top tier playmaker.
1+ Steals (-289):
We’re definitely not getting a great price but this is due to Harden’s steal count being almost a sure thing, with him failing to record a steal in only two games this postseason. Over his career, Harden is averaging 1.6 SPG in the playoffs, so getting at least one is a low bar for a player who’s averaging 1.9 SPG in his last 14 playoff games.
The Knicks averaged 13.6 TO/G in the regular season and a lot of their possessions run through Karl-Anthony Towns at the moment, which will create opportunities for the Cavs to interrupt passing lanes or pressure the ball directly.
