We’ve got a true Coors Field Special on our hands. It doesn’t matter what kind of pitcher you are when you head into a warm-weather day game in Denver; that ball is going to fly. Who will come out on top in what should be a high-scoring affair?
First pitch is set for 3:10 p.m. ET. The Diamondbacks are -143 Moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, while a Rockies upset is priced at +119. The game total is set at O/U 11.5 runs.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Diamondbacks vs. Rockies game.
Diamondbacks vs. Rockies Preview
First things first, let’s get to know these starting pitchers.
If you looked up “crafty veteran left-hander” in the dictionary, odds are you’d find a picture of Eduardo Rodriguez there. Results haven’t been there for Rodriguez over his first two seasons with the Snakes, posting an ERA over 5.00. But this year, he may have found something, recording a 2.25 ERA through eight trips to the mound.
But the underlying numbers aren’t buying it. Rodriguez still can’t miss bats at a high rate and is too dependent on fly balls. In a homer-happy MLB, that’s an awfully precarious formula. No wonder Baseball Savant has charged him with a 4.61 expected ERA, more than double his actual ERA. In short, regression is due, and it never fails to collect.
Opposite Rodriguez will be another veteran, Tomoyuki Sugano. The 36-year-old came over from Japan to join the Orioles last season, but the results weren’t great. He coughed up a 4.64 ERA in 30 starts, surrendering an American League-high 33 home runs. Naturally, the Rockies made it a priority to sign him this season, and the results are about what you’d expect.
Sugano’s 4.07 ERA doesn’t seem particularly offensive on the surface, but if Baseball Savant can be believed, he’s a ticking time bomb. Sugano’s 6.79 expected ERA is one of the worst in the league, inflated by high average exit velocities and a very low strikeout rate. Just like Rodriguez, the bill will come due soon.
Neither of these lineups has been having fun this year. Arizona and Colorado rank 24th and 27th in wRC+, respectively; not what you want to see. But Coors Field fixes all ails. Just look at Friday night’s game, where a whopping seven runs were scored in the first inning alone.
Now that we know these teams a bit better, who is going to take this one home?
Diamondbacks vs. Rockies Pick, Best Bet
This one has Coors Classic written all over it. Two lineups coming off a high-scoring Friday night game. Two pitchers well overdue for negative regression. The ball is going to be flying in the Denver heat on Saturday.
