Major League Baseball has a full Sunday of afternoon action and a nice Sunday Night Baseball divisional matchup to put a capstone on the weekend. Four games start around 4:00 p.m. ET with the Tigers and Royals closing things out at 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s take a look at some of the top home run props from later in the day this Sunday from those five later games on the slate.
As we dig into the box and get ready to swing for the fences, let’s start with a reminder that all home run props are long-shot bets. However, when a player you’ve selected goes yard, it’s an awesome event to celebrate that can also build your bankroll quickly. Even the top power hitters are more likely not to homer than to go yard on any given day, though, so it’s important not to be too aggressive. By looking at the matchups, current form, game environment and history, some players stand out as good options. You can play these props individually or choose to combine them in parlay or round robin formats to maximize the potential payout.
I spotlighted Giants rookie Bryce Eldridge in my Grand Slam Payout Picks for Sunday, so I like his home run props against the Pirates and Bubba Chandler. Looking at the matchups that start at 4:00 p.m. ET or later, my top three plays are Marcell Ozuna, Jackson Merrill and Bobby Witt Jr.
Top MLB Home Run Props
Marcell Ozuna Cole 1+ Home Run (+680)
The environment in San Francisco should be favorable to home runs on Sunday afternoon with temps near 60 and the wind blowing out. The Pirates and Ozuna will take on Tyler Mahle of the Giants, who is 1-4 with a 5.00 ERA and 4.91 FIP in his his seven outings, giving up 20 runs and six homers in his 36 innings.
While it hasn’t been a great start to the season for Ozuna either, the big righty seems to be finding his power stroke as he showed off in the first game of this series on Friday.
Ozuna is only hitting .197 on the season with that one homer and a disappointing .271 wOBA. In his last eight games, though, he’s hitting .303 with a .414 wOBA. He has multiple hard-hit batted ball events in three of his last six games, including the smash on Friday.
Mahle has allowed five of his six homers to righties like Ozuna, while holding lefties to just a .205 batting average. Since many of the top bats in the Buccos’ lineup are lefties, I like taking a long-shot play on Ozuna to catch another barrel on Sunday afternoon by the Bay.
Jackson Merrill 1+ Home Run (+497)
While righties have been the way to attack Mahle this season, lefties have had much stronger splits against Cardinals starter Kyle Leahy, which sets up well for Merrill in another homer-friendly spot in San Diego with warm temperatures and the wind blowing out.
Lefties have hit .358 against Leahy this season, with four of the six homers he has allowed in seven starts. Leahy has given up 12 runs in 20 1/3 innings on the road, while opponents have a .553 SLG and .404 wOBA against him on the road.
Merrill has plenty of raw power and has smashed four homers in his 38 games this season. He has moved to the leadoff spot in each of the last five games for the Padres and is 10-for-32 (.313) over his first eight games in May. Merrill only has one homer in that span, but he has a 69.9% hard-hit rate to improve his season mark to 47.7% on the season. He’s trending up and has a good chance at 5:1 odds to find success against Leahy on Sunday afternoon.
Bobby Witt Jr. 1+ Home Run (+508)
All of the home run props for the nightcap in Kansas City are +500 or higher, so I’m going with overall skill more than the specific matchup. The Tigers are going with a bullpen game, so it’s hard to know exactly who he’ll face, but Witt has the ability and potential to homer in any situation–even if he doesn’t hit it over the wall:
Witt has four traditional homers this season as well, and all five of his homers have come in his last 13 games. He is 17-for-54 (.319) with a 54.5% hard-hit rate and 18.2% barrel rate, posting a .445 wOBA and .667 SLG over those 13 contests. Witt has hit four of his five homers at home, and three of them have come at home against righties, which is most likely who he’ll face on Sunday night coming out of the Detroit bullpen.
He’s a nice way to get over 5:1 odds to close out the nightcap, and if he stays hot, he can deliver a great way to finish out a big baseball weekend.
